The Beginning

Glenn was born in Sydney in 1958 where, contrary to popular opinion, he in fact wasn’t born wearing a suit and tie. He went through school and on to the University of Sydney to pursue his passion for economics. However, whilst strolling the university’s corridors, he carried a deep dark secret inside – that he wasn’t “particularly good” at maths – a potentially career-ending roadblock for a budding economist. Nonetheless, showing the steely resolve that was to become his hallmark, Glenn overcame his mathematical demons and graduated out of Sydney Uni with first class honours in economics, going on to complete a Masters at the University of Western Ontario in Canada.

The Rise to Power

Punctuated only by a brief sabbatical to San Francisco in 1990, Glenn rose meteorically up the RBA ladder before becoming head of the economic analysis department in 1992. Glenn was now on the fast-track to stardom and when Governor Ian Macfarlane resigned in 2006, Stevens finally found himself in the hot seat. Glenn Stevens had cracked the big time.

Welcome to the Good Life

With inflation well under control and Australia’s economy in reasonable shape having seen the back of the GFC’s worst, Glenn Stevens’ stewardship at the helm of Australia’s monetary policy ship is looking pretty rosy. And with his new million dollars plus a year pay packet, so is his bank balance.

Dark Days and Redemption

But it hasn’t always been easy. When the RBA was forced to make tough interest rate decisions at the peak of the GFC, the media vultures pounced, one newspaper asking the question “Is this the most useless man in Australia?” in reference to Stevens. Despite his rigid facade, Stevens himself admits that the comments during those dark times had an effect – “I’m a human being; these things hurt”. His response was to open himself up to the public, an effort that has seen his popularity soar and public image restored.

The Man Behind the Governor

Fast cars, fast women and even faster drugs. Glenn Stevens may be a public figure with means, but those are three things he has most certainly steered clear of. In the words of the man himself, “this [is] not the classic case of the terribly wayward life and in the later years seeing the light”. Rather, Glenn’s life has always been underpinned by family and faith. He’s very active in his local church in Sylvania Waters, and he attributes a lot of his success to the grace of God. Equally important is his family – his wife is actually such a big fan of his that she collects bank notes with his signature on it!

Not that Glenn doesn’t have his passions. He enjoys listening to jazz and also plays guitar in his local church band. In his downtime he also has a penchant for the Bond movies, perhaps where he gets his sophisticated yet understated sense of style from. Along the same lines, perhaps his greatest extravagance is his penchant for flying – he’s a keen aviator and even owns a twin engine plane. Watch out John Travolta, there’s a new famous airman in town! Perhaps Stevens’ retirement in 2013 will see him taking Travolta’s spot in Qantas ads!

Keen to see more of Glenn’s handiwork? Check out our Reserve Bank page!

Despite reports from ANZ, Westpac and NAB that they’d follow the RBA in maintaining current rates, each bank has left a back door open on an out-of-cycle rate rise. Take ANZ’s carefully worded commitment: “Interest rates are always under review, but there is no immediate trigger at the moment for any change.” Could an immediate trigger at another moment change that tune — for example, a CBA rise next week?

ANZ chief executive Mike Smith has already hinted at his interest rate intentions, saying that with the increased cost of foreign funding, “something has to give”. CBA’s Ralph Norris put his additional funding costs at $1.2bn a year. And while the RBA has declared that bank profits are more than healthy enough to cover these costs – earnings are up and the banks are more profitable than they were pre-crisis – the Big Four aren’t known for absorbing increased costs for the benefit of the Australian home owner.

So the general feeling is that the big banks were less than impressed when the RBA defied market expectations and sat tight on a base rate of 4.5%. It’s one thing for them to slip a few extra points onto an RBA raise. It’s another for them to slap on an out-of-cycle rise.

Back to those bullets, however — and you can probably expect a Big Four rate rise in November, regardless of the RBA’s decision. Prior to that, any enemy fire is expected to come from the Commonwealth corner, as they have the largest mortgage book and the greatest exposure to increased cost of foreign funding. Also, because they’re yet to declare their immediate position.

And any rise from CBA will likely be met with moves from the other big banks. Don’t you just love an oligopoly?

To escape the firing squad — why not check out the home loan competition? Our rate chasers will be keeping track of any rate moves throughout the month so visit our Reserve Bank Interest Rate page for all the latest info.

And stay tuned for our Rate rise punt: the real Melbourne Cup Day odds.

As always, there’s something for everyone. References to good economic news and references to risks and uncertainties. If you want to predict that rates will go up in May, you can quote him on the speed of the rate cuts in 2008/9 and suggest that he’s paving the way for faster rather than slower increases. If you want to predict that the RBA will pause in May and leave rates steady, you can quote him on the need to leave flexibility in how we respond to the way the recovery unfolds. And there’s plenty each way in his analysis of the global economic recovery.

But look closer. We’ve found an ingenious code hidden in the speeches of the RBA Governor. And an astonishing truth… unveiled at last!

He tells us that, when responding to the GFC, the RBA cut rates by 375 basis points over 5 months. And that so far, they’ve responded to the recovery by increasing them by 125 basis points over 7 months, “…which is still only about a third the pace of the earlier declines.” Now 375 over 5 equals 75, but notice that 125 over 7 is well short of a third of this – it is not even a quarter! Rather than a numerical error, this is actually a clue. To get to exactly one-third, you need 200 over 8… and a 75 basis point increase in May would do exactly that! Unbelievable!

A 75 basis point increase next month is a shocking conclusion, well outside what most observers predict, but one clearly supported by the clever trail of clues he has left. But, rest assured that this would be the final increase: his speech contains 3133 words, and 3+1+3+3 = 10, and 1+0=1, ie he’s telling us that there is just one last rate rise.

Silly? Yes, but it is no less scientific than some other predictions people make from picking apart his speeches for clues. The RBA has told us clearly that there is likely to be a little bit more to go, but that the timing is up in the air. That’s all the clues they are going to give us. Maybe May, maybe June, maybe both, maybe neither.

So instead of predicting what the RBA might do, here at Mozo we’ll keep our eyes on what financial providers do in response. Every month, Mozo’s Rate Chasers update Reserve Bank interest rates with information about home loan rate rises as it comes in. And of course, you can find everything you need in our extensive database of rates, fees and features, for home loans, credit cards, savings accounts, term deposits, personal loans and bank accounts.

mozo.com.au. we chase. you save.

St George are matching the Westpac term deposit offer, so no prizes for guessing what their home loan rates will do.

Now watch the other sheep follow the leader.

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