CommSec disagrees with Westpac rates forecast

Tuesday 19 July 2011

Article by Mozo

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans' forecast that interest rates are likely to drop in the coming 12 months is wrong, according to another expert from CommSec.

CommSec holds with rate increase forecast

Craig James told the Sunday Telegraph that the predictions made by the bank were too pessimistic, suggesting that this is based on poor retail and consumer confidence and debt problems in both the US and Europe.

However, he stated: "If rates are going to move anywhere, it is still more likely to be up rather than down."

The expert added that the most likely situation is that there will be a period of stability in the coming months.

This may suggest that the current rate levels are unlikely to alter significantly from the 4.75 per cent level the Reserve Bank of Australia set in November 2010.

HSBC's Paul Bloxham's view was more in line with CommSec's than that of Westpac, as he suggested that there could be a moderate rise of 25 basis points in the final quarter of 2011.

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