Experts predict interest rate hold from RBA in May 2024

Key points 

  • Experts think the cash rate will remain at 4.35% after the May RBA meeting
  • Higher-than-expected inflation figures prompt Big Four to change their predictions 
  • Refinancing may be the only way to reduce your mortgage repayments until the RBA cuts interest rates. 
RBA governor Michele Bullock speaks at a media conference

With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in hotter on inflation than economists expected this quarter, doubts about a cash rate cut by year’s end are mounting.

The CPI grew 1% over the March quarter, taking annualised inflation to 3.6% in the 12 months to March 2024, which Mozo finance expert, Peter Marshall, says could mean another rate hold on 7 May 2024. 

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia says it won’t rule out cuts or hikes. RBA governor, Michele Bullock, told the media the Board is “responding to data as the data come out.” 

Despite the unpleasant inflation figures in the quarterly CPI, Mozo finance expert Peter Marshall says the RBA is still likely to hold the cash rate in May 2024. But, he cautions that the CPI will have a lot to do with the Board’s moves in the future.  

“The CPI result was a little higher than had been expected by the RBA and certainly the view of most economists.

“Following that, if [inflation] increases it makes it more likely that the RBA will stick with the cash rate where it is for longer, or possibly even need to implement one or two more rate increases later in the year.

“They won’t want to increase the cash rate unless it's really necessary,” he said. 

Big Four banks update their interest rate cut predictions 

While economists at the Big Four banks tend to agree that the cash rate will remain at 4.35% in May 2024 we’ve already seen interest rate predictions from some of the Big Four move from a September cut to a November cut. 

How to lower your home loan repayments 

Borrowers desperate for rate relief, who are watching the expert predictions get further and further away, still have a couple of options to lower their home loan repayments, says Marshall. 

“The best thing for everyone to do is to see what rate you're on now, see what rate you could be on by having a look at what other lenders are offering, and then thinking about whether that sort of reduction in interest is worth you putting a bit of time into refinancing your loan.

“And if you don't want to do that, at least have a chat with your current lender and say, ‘Hey, I've seen a loan that's a bit lower than what you're offering. And I'm thinking about going to that lender.’ See if you can leverage a rate cut out of your existing lender that way.” 

When you compare home loans, keep an eye out for features like offset accounts and redraw facilities, which can help to reduce the amount of interest you pay. Some lenders offer them free of charge, while others have a small fee. 

But Marshall also says those who have paid off a fair chunk of their home loan could benefit from taking a look at their loan-to-value ratio (LVR), as a means of reducing their interest rate.

“The other possibility for some people might be, if you've had your loan for a while and you've decreased your loan-to-value ratio, you may be able to get a better deal from a different lender by going through that refinancing process.

“If you start off paying interest rates at 80% LVR or above, and if you're down to 60% now, a lender might find you a less risky borrower and be happy to give you a better rate.

“So there are a couple of lenders that will do that automatically for you during the life of your loan, but most lenders don't.” 

Start off by checking out the latest refinance home loan rates, or browsing through the featured home loans below to see what’s on offer.

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Last updated 15 January 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
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Your loan-to-value ratio (LVR): 50%

Loan amount and LVR will affect interest rates.

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    Competitive interest rate. No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees. Buy your home with as little as a 5% deposit. You can redraw your repayments if you’re ahead. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly. Make extra payments without penalty, to pay off your home loan even faster.

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    • LVR <80%
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    Initial monthly repayment
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    $2,899
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    No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

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    Initial monthly repayment
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    Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.

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    Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

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    Get repayment security with fixed rates from one to five years. Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period. Fix a portion of your loan and leave the rest variable. Borrow up to 95% of the property value. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly.

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    BCU Bank’s OMG owner occupied home loan offers a variety of great low rates depending on your deposit. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Access your extra payments when you need to through the redraw facility. Pre-approval valid for 3 months.

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  • Variable Home Loan 90

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    Initial monthly repayment
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    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
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    Comparison rate
    6.17 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    100% offset account so you can save on interest and reduce the amount you pay on your home loan. Free redraw. 100% offset account. Only 5% deposit required. No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees to pay. Tiered interest rates so you can benefit from a lower rate when you borrow less.

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    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

  • Offset Variable Home Loan

    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.34 % p.a.
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    6.37 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,108
    Go to site

    Competitive interest rate. 100% offset account so your savings can reduce the amount of interest you pay on your home loan. No ongoing monthly fees. Buy your home with as little as a 5% deposit. You can redraw your repayments if you’re ahead. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly. Make extra payments without penalty, to pay off your home loan even faster.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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