Home loan watch: when will interest rates come down again? Industry forecasts explained

Key Points

  • The RBA held the cash rate at 3.85% in July, with another cut widely expected in August.
  • All Big Four banks pencilled in a 25 basis point cut at July's meeting – and all were wrong.
  • The RBA said it's waiting on the next quarterly CPI (inflation) data drop before any further cuts. 
  • A pause in the global trade tariffs shake-up has brought some welcome stability.
Collage of a woman walking down a descending graph line.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains that its number one enemy is inflation. If inflation stays high, so will home loan interest rates. For households experiencing mortgage stress, a cut to the cash rate may see their variable rates reduced - which, for some, can't come soon enough.

UPDATE: The RBA held the official cash rate at 3.85% on 8 July, 2025. View

When will the RBA cut rates again?

Both sticky inflation and, subsequently, the RBA's decisions defied expectations in 2024, leading many economists to adjust their cash rate cut calls further and further into the future.

However, now that the RBA has twice cut the cash rate in 2025, banks and market commentators have reset their forecasts in order to predict the timing of the next possible rate reduction.

Cash rate forecasts: Westpac, NAB, CommBank & ANZ

Here's the latest predictions for movements this year from the Big Four banks as at 8 July, 2025:

  • Westpac – Cuts in August and November.
  • NAB – Cuts in August and November.
  • CommBank – Cuts in August and November.
  • ANZ – Cuts in August and November.

The figures below offer an overview of the Big Four banks' long term cash rate outlook:

Jun 25 Sep 25 Dec 25 Mar 26 Jun 26 Sep 26 Dec 26
Westpac
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.10%
2.85%
2.85%
2.85%
NAB
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.10%
3.10% 3.10%
3.10%
CommBank
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
3.35%
ANZ 3.85% 3.60% 3.35% 3.35% 3.35% 3.35% 3.35%

ASX cash rate forecasts: RBA Rate Indicator

This tracks market expectations of a change in the cash rate, shown as a percentage probability. Results are based on market determined prices in the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures

Trading Day No change Decrease to 3.60%
24 June 11% 89%
25 June 6% 94%
26 June 3% 97%
27 June 3% 97%
30 June 3% 97%
01 July 3% 97%
02 July 0% 100%
03 July 3% 97%
04 July 3% 97%
07 July 3% 97%

How can homeowners save on loan repayments?

The RBA cut the cash rate in May. If lenders passed on the 25 basis point rate cut in full, Aussie homeowners could see meaningful savings on their mortgage repayments.

According to Mozo’s latest analysis, the average borrower with a $660,000 loan could save around $100 per month, or $1,195 per year, if their rate dropped from 6.10% p.a. to 5.85% p.a.

Borrowers in New South Wales, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory are likely to see the biggest difference in terms of dollar value on their mortgage repayments. 

See below for a state-by-state comparison and breakdown of potential borrower savings:

If the RBA cuts the cash rate to 3.60%
State Loan amount Current monthly repayments Potential new monthly repayments Monthly repayment difference Annual repayment difference
Australia $660,000 $4,192 $4,092 -$100 -$1,195
NSW $795,000 $5,050 $4,930 -$120 -$1,440
VIC $628,000 $3,989 $3,894 -$95 -$1,137
QLD $641,000 $4,071 $3,975 -$97 -$1,161
SA $591,000 $3,754 $3,665 -$89 -$1,070
WA $594,000 $3,773 $3,683 -$90 -$1,076
TAS $487,000 $3,093 $3,020 -$73 -$882
NT $488,000 $3,100 $3,026 -$74 -$884
ACT $616,000 $3,913 $3,820 -$93 -$1,115
Source: mozo.com.au Based on 25 year terms, Owner Occupier Principal & Interest. Average Owner-Occupier Variable Housing Rate estimate of 5.85% (using 25bp less than 6.10% as of April 2025 Lenders' Interest Rates, RBA), and $660,000 as the average loan size for owner occupier dwellings (Lending Indicators, ABS, March Quarter 2025).

If you’re struggling to service your loan, you might consider calling your lender to negotiate your rate or do your own research to investigate whether refinancing may be a viable option.

The best path for you will depend on your individual financial circumstances.

Looking to buy your first home? Consider these three ways to break into the property market.

Compare a range of home loans, listed on the Mozo database, below.

Last updated 14 July 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
What are your home loan needs?
Loan purpose
Buying or Refinancing
  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.40 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
    • Built by CommBank
  • Promoted

    Everyday Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Access unlimited free redraw on extra repayments
    • No monthly account keeping fees
    • Option to split your loan (fee applies)
  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.77 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.
  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.76 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.72 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties
    • Split loan available
  • Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.40 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
    • Built by CommBank
  • OMG Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.52 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.76 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.77 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.
  • Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.53 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.86 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,848
    Go to site
    • Multiple offset accounts available
    • Free extra repayments
    • Easy redraw facility
  • Budget Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.57 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Split loan available
  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.58 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • No monthly or ongoing fees
    • Option to add an offset for 0.10% p.a.
  • Everyday Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Access unlimited free redraw on extra repayments
    • No monthly account keeping fees
    • Option to split your loan (fee applies)
  • Basic Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.63 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.66 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,880
    Go to site
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Neat Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.64 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.66 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,883
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments
    • Easy redraw facility
    • No annual fee to pay
  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.64 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.67 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,883
    Go to site
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees to pay.
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
  • Flex Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.64 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.89 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,883
    Go to site
    • Multiple offset accounts available
    • Free extra repayments
    • Easy redraw facility
  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.79 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site
    • 100% offset account
    • Access unlimited free redraw on extra repayments
    • No monthly account keeping fees
  • Offset Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.84 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.87 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,947
    Go to site
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
Showing 15 results from 407 home loans. Use the filters to see more

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards

Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.

While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.