Home loan watch: when will interest rates come down again? Industry forecasts explained
Key Points
- The RBA left the official cash rate unchanged at its November meeting, citing sticky inflation
-
Headline (3.2%) and underlying (3.0%) inflation are at or above the RBA's 2-3% target band
- The unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% in October after rising to 4.5% in September 2025
- Only two of the Big Four banks expect cuts in 2026, CBA and NAB say no more for this cycle
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains that its number one enemy is inflation. If inflation stays high, so will home loan interest rates. For households experiencing mortgage stress, a cut to the cash rate may see their variable rates reduced – potentially providing some financial relief.
UPDATE: The RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60% on 4 November, 2025. View
When will the RBA cut rates again?
Sticky inflation and the RBA’s repeated decisions to hold the cash rate steady through 2024 defied expectations, forcing many economists to push their rate-cut forecasts further into the future.
However, now that the RBA has cut the cash rate three times in 2025, banks and market commentators have reset their forecasts in order to predict the timing of future rate reductions.
Cash rate forecasts: CommBank, ANZ, NAB & Westpac
The latest Big Four bank predictions for RBA movements in 2025/26 as at 19 November, 2025:
- CommBank – No more cuts this cycle
- ANZ – Cut in February '26
- NAB – No more cuts this cycle
- Westpac – Cut in May '26, and one more in August '26
The figures below offer a quarterly overview of the Big Four banks' long term cash rate outlook:
| Sep 25 | Dec 25 | Mar 26 | Jun 26 | Sep 26 | Dec 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CommBank | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% |
| ANZ | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.35% | 3.35% | 3.35% | 3.35% |
|
NAB |
3.60% |
3.60% |
3.60% |
3.60% |
3.60% |
3.60% |
| Westpac | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.35% | 3.10% | 3.10% |
How can homeowners save on loan repayments?
The RBA last cut the cash rate in August and if lenders passed on the 25 basis point rate cut in full, Aussie homeowners could see meaningful savings on their mortgage repayments.
According to Mozo’s latest analysis, the average borrower with a $660,000 loan could save around $100 per month, or $1,195 per year, if their rate dropped from 6.10% p.a. to 5.85% p.a.
Borrowers in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria are likely to see the most significant differences in terms of annual dollar value savings on their mortgage repayments.
See below for a state-by-state comparison and breakdown of potential borrower savings:
| Potential Mortgage Repayment Savings | |||||
| State | Loan amount | Current monthly repayments | Potential new monthly repayments | Monthly repayment difference | Annual repayment difference |
| Australia | $660,000 | $4,192 | $4,092 | -$100 | -$1,195 |
| NSW | $795,000 | $5,050 | $4,930 | -$120 | -$1,440 |
| VIC | $628,000 | $3,989 | $3,894 | -$95 | -$1,137 |
| QLD | $641,000 | $4,071 | $3,975 | -$97 | -$1,161 |
| SA | $591,000 | $3,754 | $3,665 | -$89 | -$1,070 |
| WA | $594,000 | $3,773 | $3,683 | -$90 | -$1,076 |
| TAS | $487,000 | $3,093 | $3,020 | -$73 | -$882 |
| NT | $488,000 | $3,100 | $3,026 | -$74 | -$884 |
| ACT | $616,000 | $3,913 | $3,820 | -$93 | -$1,115 |
| Source: mozo.com.au Based on 25 year terms, Owner Occupier Principal & Interest. Average Owner-Occupier Variable Housing Rate estimate of 5.85% (using 25bp less than 6.10% as of April 2025 Lenders' Interest Rates, RBA), and $660,000 as the average loan size for owner occupier dwellings (Lending Indicators, ABS, March Quarter 2025). | |||||
If you’re struggling to service your loan, you might consider calling your lender to negotiate your rate or do some additional research to investigate whether refinancing may be a viable option.
The best path for you will depend on your individual financial circumstances.
Compare a range of home loans, listed on the Mozo database, below.
-
Promoted
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
Unloan Variable Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 20% min deposit
- Redraw available
Go to site- Interest rate
-
5.19
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.10
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,742
- The first home loan with an automatic loyalty discount (conditions apply)
- No application or banking fees
- Built by CommBank
- interest rate
-
5.19% p.a. (5.10% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
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Rate automatically discounted by 0.01% p.a. every year up to a maximum discount of 0.30% p.a..
- Special Offers
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-
Read reviews and learn more about Unloan home loans
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First Home Buyer Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 5% min deposit
- For first home buyers
- Offset available
- Redraw available
Go to site- Interest rate
-
4.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.04
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,681
- Competitive interest rate – 4.99% p.a. (comparison rate* 5.04% p.a.)
- Offset account to reduce interest and save on repayments
- No establishment or monthly fees, plus valuation fees waived up to $1,000 (limited time)
- interest rate
-
4.99% p.a. (5.04% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$300.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
-
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$100.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
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First home buyers only. Legal, valuation and settlement fees at cost. New rate offer for new business only offer ends on 15th Dec 2025.
- Other benefits
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-
- Special Offers
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-
Read reviews and learn more about G&C Mutual Bank home loans
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Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Fixed rate
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 5% min deposit
Go to site- Interest rate
-
5.09
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.43
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,712
- No ongoing annual fees
- Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
- Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.24% p.a. (5.48% p.a. comparison rate)
2 years - 5.09% p.a. (5.43% p.a. comparison rate)
3 years - 5.29% p.a. (5.46% p.a. comparison rate)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (5.58% p.a. comparison rate)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (5.60% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
5.48% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Additional repayments allowed up to $25,000 during the fixed period.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
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Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
Unloan Variable Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 20% min deposit
- Redraw available
Go to site- Interest rate
-
5.19
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.10
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,742
- The first home loan with an automatic loyalty discount (conditions apply)
- No application or banking fees
- Built by CommBank
- interest rate
-
5.19% p.a. (5.10% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
Rate automatically discounted by 0.01% p.a. every year up to a maximum discount of 0.30% p.a..
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Unloan home loans
Go to site -
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
- Investor Home Loan - 2025
Discount Great Rate Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 20% min deposit
- Redraw available
- Cashback
Go to site- Interest rate
-
5.19
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.20
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,742
- Get up to $3,000 cashback when you apply online (T&Cs apply)
- No paperwork or payslips required (see site for details)
- Low variable rate
- interest rate
-
5.19% p.a. (5.20% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$180.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$300.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
Apply online cashback offer $2,500 for new loans of $250,000-$499,999 or $3,000 cashback for $500,000 or more for purchases or refinancing, LVR <80%. Up to $2,500 cashback for refinancers or first home buyers for applications made with lenders. T&Cs apply
Read reviews and learn more about Greater Bank home loans
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Mozo experts choice awards won:
- First Home Buyer Loan - 2025
Variable Home Loan 90
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 10% min deposit
- Offset available
- Redraw available
Go to site- Interest rate
-
5.29
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.33
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,773
- No monthly or ongoing fees
- Option to add an offset for 0.10% p.a.
- interest rate
-
5.29% p.a. (5.33% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$530.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Offset sub-account available for additional +0.10%. $300 discharge fee and $250 discharge documentation fee applicable if loan doesnt go to full term.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about loans.com.au home loans
Go to site -
Offset Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 40% min deposit
- Offset available
- Redraw available
Go to site- Interest rate
-
5.39
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.42
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,805
- No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees to pay.
- Pre-approval valid for 3 months
- interest rate
-
5.39% p.a. (5.42% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$300.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
n/a
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
-
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards
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