2025 RBA interest rate tracker: What do rate cuts mean for your home loan?
- RBA held the cash rate at 3.60% in November amid sticky inflation pressures
- Three of the Big Four banks expect cuts in 2026, while CBA says no more this cycle
- RBA say underlying inflation is expected to remain at or above target until 2027
- The ABS will release the first new Monthly CPI indicator on 26 November 2025
Changes to the official cash rate influence all types of interest rates – from home loans and savings accounts to personal loans and term deposits. At Mozo, we track these shifts closely to help you understand how they affect your money.
RBA says hold your horses, no cut in November 2025
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the official cash rate at 3.60% in November. This continues the RBA’s cautious “watchful pause” after three rate cuts earlier in the year.
The main reason for holding rates was a pick-up in inflation. Underlying inflation reached 3.0%, hitting the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Price pressures are proving stickier than expected.
Electricity prices surged 9.0% in the September quarter, as state rebates in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania ended. Without the cessation of those rebates, Mozo Experts Choice Awards’ latest energy analysis suggests prices would have risen just 4.8% in September 2025.
The RBA also noted the labour market is starting to soften. The unemployment rate is now 4.5%, helping moderate wage growth and easing some pressure on long-term inflation.
The central bank highlighted ongoing strength in the housing market as part of a modest economic recovery. It is moving carefully to avoid overstimulating growth and sending inflation higher again.
Overall, the RBA is taking a measured approach. It is balancing inflation control with support for the economy and will rely on incoming data before making any further rate moves.
Below are the Big Four banks' forecasts for the cash rate:
- Westpac: cut in May and in August 2026
- ANZ: cut in February 2026
- NAB: cut in May 2026
- CBA: no further cuts this cycle
Home loan rate change calculator
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Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate
Interest rates are the main tool central banks have at their disposal for steering the economy in a desired direction. Central banks around the world have been lifting interest rates in response to high inflation, and the RBA is no exception.
Over two years from 2022-23, the RBA lifted the cash rate by 425 basis points. It held steady at 4.35% through 2024 and now into 2025, and with inflation more under control, the RBA cut the rate in February to 4.10%, in May to 3.85% and again in August to 3.60%.
When is the next RBA interest rate decision?
RBA rate announcement dates for 2025 can be found on our RBA monetary policy page.
The RBA publishes its cash rate decision at 2:30pm on the second day of deliberations. This includes a statement from RBA governor Michele Bullock. You can read about the announcement and any bank movements by visiting our Reserve Bank interest rates article.
Variable rate home loans
Variable rate home loans are sensitive to RBA interest rate movements. They will usually be priced a few percentage points higher than the RBA’s target because lenders factor in operating costs. If the cash rate goes up, variable rates will too.
The graph below shows the relationship between the cash rate and variable rates for various home loan borrower types.
Lowest and average variable rates – October 2025
Lowest – 4.99% p.a.
Variable rate for owner occupiers at $500,000 (80% LVR) in Mozo's database at 30 October 2025.
Average – 5.87% p.a.
Variable rate for owner occupiers at $500,000 (80% LVR) in Mozo's database at 30 October 2025.
Fixed rate home loans
Fixed rate home loans are predictive of RBA interest rate movements. Since fixed rates stay the same for their fixed term, lenders set rates based on what they think the RBA will do during that period. If they expect interest rates to rise, so will fixed rates, and vice versa.
The graph below shows the average fixed rates for 1-5 year home loan terms. You can see how they have followed a similar path to the RBA cash rate.
Lowest and average fixed rates – October 2025
| Loan term | Average fixed rate (p.a.) | Lowest fixed rate (p.a.) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 5.35% | 4.65% |
| 2 years | 5.15% | 4.64% |
| 3 years | 5.25% | 4.74% |
| 4 years | 5.59% | 5.29% |
| 5 years | 5.61% | 5.19% |
Rates for owner-occupiers, fixed at $500,000 (80% LVR) in Mozo's database at 30 October 2025.
Average new loan repayments across Australia
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the RBA cash rate?
The cash rate (also called official interest rates or the policy rate), is the interest rate on 'overnight funds.' These are the funds that banks lend to one another to cover the transactions they have to make on a daily basis.
When the Reserve Bank of Australia moves the cash rate up or down, it tends to shift the economic mood in ways that are believed to affect spending, investment, inflation and employment.
How does the cash rate affect home loan rates?
The cash rate directly affects variable home loan rates, so unless you’ve fixed your mortgage, you can expect your interest rate to increase by roughly the same amount. But the cash rate is one of several things banks have to take into account when pricing their loans. While it serves as a baseline, rates will differ across lenders depending on their business needs (think the cost of staff, branches, marketing, and interest paid out to customers).
When does the RBA announce its decision?
Traditionally the RBA has met on the first Tuesday of every month (except January). It announces any changes to the cash rate at 2:30 the same day. From 2024 however, the RBA began to only meet 8 times a year instead of 11. The Tuesday announcement time remains the same.
How does the cash rate affect the economy?
Households and companies borrow money to spend, so if the cost of borrowing is high, we can expect them to dial down their spending. This impacts business profits, hiring and investment decisions, employment, wages and ultimately inflation.
Will higher interest rates cause property prices to fall?
Higher interest rates have a dampening effect on property prices. This is because the higher cost of borrowing tends to discourage hopeful buyers, particularly first home buyers, from entering the market.
What's are the RBA inflation and employment targets?
The RBA has an inflation target of between 2% and 3%. The RBA typically also places a high priority on achieving full employment, which is when the jobless rate is around 4%.
* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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