The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 4.10% at its April meeting. Over the past few months inflation has continued to dissipate, albeit slowly. In addition, the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. However, the United States’ trade tariffs have raised global economic uncertainty and concern.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its first rate cut in four years, reducing the cash rate to 4.10% at its February meeting. This move comes on the back of easing inflation, prompting the central bank to shift its approach and offer some relief to borrowers.
Despite headline inflation moving within the target range, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hasn’t budged on its decision to keep rates steady. What’s holding them back?
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority have been given a combined grade of D minus for their environmental policies, in a new report from Positive Money.
The Reserve Bank of Australia looks poised to cut official interest rates by 0.15% next week, which would leave the cash rate at a record low 0.1%.In recent speeches the RBA has signalled a willingness to take the cash rate below its current setting while keeping it above zero. Speculation reached a fever pitch in the lead up to last month’s meeting but ultimately the Board decided against making a move.For Mozo’s banking expert Peter Marshall, November is almost certainly the month the RBA will opt for further easing.“It’s obvious that things are going to take a very long time to recover, and while the bank stood by to let the government have some clear air for the budget in October, it’s now ready to step in and support the budget measures,” he said.A number of economists have also backed a November cut. CBA chief economist Stephen Halmarick believes the Board will push further into the “conventional unconventional monetary policy space” next week. “This easing is expected to involve a cut in the three key interest rates – the cash rate target, the three-year bond yield target and the term funding facility target from 0.25% to 0.1%,” he said.“Critically, this easing of monetary policy is expected to be implemented at the same time as the RBA looks set to revise upwards their economic forecasts given the run of better economic data.”Westpac chief economist Bill Evans also anticipates a change in the bond purchasing program, though he does not expect the Board to set a specific quantity target.“It is already setting a price target for the three year rate. Fixing both price and quantity targets may lead to unexpected difficulties down the track,” he said. While the RBA's bias against negative interest rates has softened somewhat over the last six months, the possibility the cash rate will dip below zero remains unlikely.“There's no evidence that they have yet given such a move serious consideration, and they are likely to continue to rely on other methods of supporting the economy for some time yet,” said Marshall.
While economic output in Australia saw a significant contraction in March and April, minutes from the RBA’s June meeting suggest the current downturn could be “shallower than earlier expected.” Australia’s relative success in containing the virus and the Federal Government’s multiple stimulus measures have been instrumental in protecting the economy from collapse, the minutes said. “Households that were already receiving welfare payments had additional payments, and the JobKeeper program and increased JobSeeker payments had supported incomes for others. In some instances, households had received more income than usual.”But there are still plenty of hurdles ahead, with the RBA warning that reduced consumer demand and appetite for investment could prolong the downturn.Unemployment will also remain elevated for come time, though a consensus is emerging that the number of job losses won’t be as severe as initially expected.“The contraction in spending in late March and April had been accompanied by significant job losses, with total hours worked falling by 9 per cent in April. Timelier payroll data suggested that the pace of job losses had slowed towards the end of April,” the minutes read.“In some of the industries that had been most affected by the restrictions on activity, the number of jobs had stabilised or increased a little, suggesting that the total decline in hours worked may be less than had previously been feared.”However, members noted that an unusual number of Australians who lost their job in April did not actively search for new work, obscuring the overall picture of unemployment. What’s more, the share of workers who are still on their company’s payroll but working zero hours has also increased. “While some of these workers were likely to have been supported through the JobKeeper program, others would have been stood down without pay and may have become unemployed since then,” the minutes read.
In a senate inquiry today, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe suggested that the JobKeeper payment could be extended beyond its September expiry date, or potentially even survive in a different form.While the current downturn is not as severe as initially projected, Lowe warned that the economic stimulus should not be phased out too early.“If we have not come out of the current trough of economic activity, there will be - or there should be - a debate about how the JobKeeper program transitions into something else,” he said.The Federal Government rolled out the wage subsidy in late March to help preserve the connection between companies and employees. It has repeatedly said the program is only temporary. But Lowe said there may be a push to keep JobKeeper around for those in particularly hard-hit industries, such as the tourism sector, which may be struggling to stay afloat for months or even years to come.RELATED: Who is eligible for the government’s support payments?Lowe admitted that the program was prepared at a time of extreme uncertainty during which a six month hibernation of the economy seemed like a very real possibility.While that belief hasn’t exactly been borne out, a massive blow has been dealt to Australians’ confidence. The shape and timing of economic recovery will depend on how quickly that confidence is restored.Unemployment also remains high, with the latest labour force data to come out described by the RBA boss as “shocking.” Nearly 600,000 people lost their jobs in April, and that number is expected to increase over the coming months. “We know from previous sharp economic downturns that there is scarring in the labour market. People fall out of jobs and then have trouble getting back in and then we have more long-term unemployment,” Lowe said.Right now, the real rate of unemployment is obscured by the number of people who are working zero hours but still on their company’s payroll, as well as those who have exited the labour force completely.A more useful picture is provided by the number of hours worked, which declined by 9% in April. The RBA expects it to drop further in May, though not as sharply.Lowe also spoke of the need for a reform agenda centred around creating a favourable climate for businesses to “expand, invest, innovate and hire people.” A big part of that will involve rethinking both the tax system, which Lowe claims is not “optimally designed for growth,” and our approach to regulation. For information about the assistance available to households and businesses, along with tips to keep your finances in good health amid the current crisis, browse our guide to coronavirus and your finances.
It's clear that the coronavirus pandemic has put extreme pressure on the economy, but recent comments by Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe put the extent of the current crisis into clear focus.“Over the first half of 2020, we are likely to experience the biggest contraction in national output and national income that we’ve witnessed since the 1930s,” he said in a speech on Tuesday.The RBA is forecasting a drop in national output of 10% in the coming months, with most of the decline occurring in the June quarter. The number of out-of-work Australians will also see a steep increase.“The unemployment rate is likely to be around 10% by June, although I am hopeful that it might be lower than this if businesses are able to retain their employees on lower hours,” Lowe said.While the numerous stimulus packages introduced by the Government will help many weather the downturn, a dip in household income is to be expected. Consumer spending is also unlikely to recover in the near term, given the restrictions on movement and social activity currently being enforced. RELATED: Who is eligible for the government’s Coronavirus support payments? As for inflation, the RBA expects it to remain positive in underlying terms, but is bracing for a steep drop in the June quarter.“The large fall in oil prices, combined with the introduction of free childcare and the deferral or reduction in some price increases mean that it is quite likely that year-ended headline inflation will turn negative in June,” Lowe said.“If so, this would be the first time since the early 1960s that the price level has fallen over a full year.”Lowe admitted that as more economic data comes in over the coming months it will present a “very sobering picture of the state of our economy.” At the same time, he stressed that the current crisis is a temporary one and that the country’s institutions are well-placed to handle it.“As Australians digest this economic news, I would ask that we keep in mind that this period will pass, and that a bridge has been built to get us to the other side. With the help of that bridge, we will recover and the economy will grow strongly again,” he said.
Following a submission to the senate, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has expressed its concerns over social media giant, Facebook’s planned cryptocurrency, Libra.
The RBA’s final meeting of 2019 is only a few days away, and while there’s been some chatter about a potential cut, markets are fairly confident that the cash rate will be kept on hold in December, leaving February as the more likely date.