Housing demand, rents fall as overseas migration comes to a halt
Border closures caused by the coronavirus pandemic are expected to impact housing demand by between 129,000 and 232,000 dwellings over the next three years, according to new research by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC).Housing demand in capital cities is typically fuelled by population growth, but the NHFIC estimates Australia’s population could fall by up to 214,000 between 2019 and 2021. This would represent the steepest decline since World War I.Driving this contraction is the closure of international borders, which has brought the number of people arriving to Australia’s shores to a near standstill. This has been most keenly felt in the capital cities, where new arrivals tend to gravitate. Last year, 84% of migrants to Australia settled in a capital city, with three quarters opting for Sydney or Melbourne. The decrease in underlying demand adds to the mounting problems currently facing the construction sector. After about 162,000 homes were built in 2019, the NHFIC estimates this could drop to 137,000 this year, and 108,000 in 2021.
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