RBA June 2024: Unemployment rate meets forecast, ANZ says no cuts ‘til 2025, cuts begin in Europe

Key points:

  • The June 2024 RBA meeting is expected to hold at 4.35% 
  • The unemployment rate fell to 4% in May, in line with forecasts 
  • ANZ pushed back its cut prediction to 2025.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks at a press conference. Superimposed on the image are the words 'Hike or Hold?'

Around the world the cuts have begun. The European Central Bank (ECB) last week announced a 25 basis-point cut after the central bank’s June meeting, but the US Federal Reserve hasn’t followed suit, leaving its rate unchanged.

In Australia, new unemployment data released before the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on 18 June 2024 shows the unemployment rate fell to 4% in May. This tracks in line with forecasts and is heading in the direction the RBA wants, which should mean no more hikes to come.

However, that doesn’t mean we’re any closer to seeing the first cash rate cut – especially in the opinion of ANZ head of Australian economics, Adam Boyton.

“For well over a year, we have expected that the first cash rate cut in Australia this cycle would be in November 2024. More recently, however, we have been cautioning that the risks around that view were skewed to a later start to the easing cycle,” he said.

The factors that Boyton says has prompted the Big Four bank to change its cash rate prediction include the March quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI), stronger than expected household consumption, and government spending keeping GDP afloat.

ANZ now predicts that we’ll see the first cash rate cut in February 2025 at the earliest. This differs greatly from the other Big Four rate predictions, where CBA, NAB, and Westpac forecast a 0.25% rate cut in November 2024.

For now, the only rate-relief borrowers can get comes from a bit of elbow grease.

As refinancing can take quite some time, effort, and money to do, your first move should be to call your lender and ask for a lower interest rate. Of course, you’ll want to be armed with competitor’s rates to cite when asking for a reduction. You can compare home loans to find those. 

If you wind up finding lower interest rates from other lenders, and your current one won’t budge in negotiations, then it might be time to refinance. Make sure you compare refinance rates to find the most competitive rates for your needs and consider which features you might want from your new home loan. 

If you want somewhere to start, check out the best home loans in Australia – the winners of the 2024 Mozo Experts Choice Awards^.