Are interest rates going up? New forecasts from Westpac, NAB, ANZ, and CommBank

Key Points

  • The Big 4 Banks do not expect any rate rises in 2024. The cash rate has peaked at 4.35%.
  • The RBA may start cutting interest rates in November to December 2024.
  • The next RBA interest rates announcement is 6 August 2024.
  • A technical recession is possible in 2024, but not looking likely at the moment.
Collage of a man walking a rising graphline on a field of red.

Over the last two years, the home loan market has been rocked by a series of rate hikes thanks the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The central bank has been chasing runaway inflation with tighter monetary policy.

Experts from the Big Four banks agree the dust will settle with the current official cash rate of 4.35%. The RBA has certainly maintained a tightening bias, though it has softened its language considerably.

There is better news, too. As the economy recovers from disruptions, interest rates may come down in 2024, even as early as November.

Let's break down the predictions below.

How high will rates go in 2024? RBA rate hike movements, play by play

Up arrows for interest rates, text:

Any RBA decision to raise official interest rates in 2024 will be strongly data-dependent, since the cash rate is already in deeply restrictive territory.

This means economic indicators such an employment, household spending, and wage growth (a.k.a. "services inflation") will guide all RBA decisions in 2024.

At the moment, there is plenty of evidence that the economy has slowed down and that inflation has begun to moderate. Unemployment has started to uptick while wages growth has picked up the pace. This supports an argument for no rate hikes in 2024, leaving the cash rate at a peak of 4.35%.

Interest rate forecasts for 2024

The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in June, which experts predict will remain the same on 6 August 2024 when the RBA next meets.

Big Four Bank RBA interest rate forecasts (18 June 2024)

Big BankCash Rate Peak in 2024
Commonwealth Bank4.35% p.a.
ANZ4.35% p.a.
Westpac4.35% p.a.
NAB4.35% p.a.

In the meantime, mortgage stress will continue to rock the housing market. Even if we have seen the last cash rate hike decision, borrowers will keenly await a time when rates come down.

Will there be a rate cut or recession in 2024?

If the economy slows down too much, the RBA may choose to cut the cash rate. This is especially critical if they're trying to ward off a recession. However, with Australian employment still going strong, the alarm bells aren't quite ringing yet. 

What's more, the Big Banks estimate that inflation will ease off in late 2024 and early 2025, potentially incentivising the RBA to relax its iron grip on the cash rate and pass along a series of cuts anyway.

RBA cash rate cut forecasts from Westpac and NAB (June 2024)

Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26
Westpac4.35%4.35%4.10%3.85%3.60%3.35%3.10%-
NAB4.35%4.35%4.10%3.85%3.60%3.35%3.10%3.10%
CommBank4.35%4.35%4.10%3.85%3.60%3.35%3.10%-

CBA, Westpac, and NAB predict that interest rates will come down in 2024 at the earliest and 2025 at the latest, potentially bringing the cash rate into neutral territory of around 3%, while ANZ researchers suggest the cuts may be further down the road. Either way, there may be mortgage relief on the horizon.

However, with the cash rate currently resting at 4.35%, home loan borrowers will continue watching the RBA for future moves.

Stressed about mortgage repayments? Time to get proactive

A woman dances against a blue background because she's got her mortgage under control.

An era of rate hikes has its advantages – if you know how to lean into monetary policy – and there are plenty of great strategies you could take for keeping your mortgage within your budget. So roll up your sleeves: it’s time to get proactive. 

If you already have a mortgage:

  • Get an offset account – and fill it up. While more common with variable home loans, an offset account could save you bundles on interest. 
  • Compare interest rates, and if you find something better, refinance. If you’re in a position to refinance, comparing what’s out there could clue you into deals with better rates, features, and support. 
  • Climb aboard the savings train. Home loan rates may be up, but thankfully, so are savings accounts. If you’re considering making the switch, you could start by comparing these high interest rate savings options.

If you’re looking to buy property:

  • Let the government help you out. Every state in Australia has first home buyers grants and schemes aimed at improving access and affordability. On a national level, the Labor government has also announced its new Help to Buy scheme.
  • Show lenders you’re a good bet. Lenders aren’t keen on approving applications from risky borrowers, so if you can, take steps to pay off your debt, save for a bigger deposit, and be mindful of your credit history.
  • Walk into the auction with your head held high. High interest rates cool competition at auctions, so sellers may be more willing than you think to privately negotiate a price – and accept lower offers than normal. So if house prices have fallen in your area, the ball is in your court.

How much will $1 million buy in Australia's capitals? We compared the market so you don't have to. Compare low rate home loans in the table below.

Home loan comparisons on Mozo

Mozo may receive payment if you click the products below. We don’t compare the entire market, but you can search our database of 473 home loans.
Last updated 19 June 2024 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Discount Variable Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.01 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    A low rate home loan for owner-occupiers packed with great features including unlimited extra repayments, free online redraw, no application or monthly admin fees. Rate will vary depending on LVR. Winner of a Mozo Experts Choice 2024 Low Cost Home Loan Award^

  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.06 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.

  • Fixed Rate Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.15 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027

    Additional repayments of up to $10K per fixed year. Interest rate discounts available. Waiver of $499 application fee when combined with an Orange Advantage Home Loan.

  • The Better Home Loan Special Offer

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<80%
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a variable rate home loan with a bunch of features from Police Credit Union. Make extra repayments at any time without penalty. No monthly, annual or upfront fees. Free online redraw. Minimum 20% deposit. Qualifying criteria applies. Minimum loan amount is 200K. For new customers only. Mozo Experts Choice Home Lender Credit Union of the Year 2023.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Mortgage Simplifier

    • LVR<80%
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.17 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043

    Get a competitive variable rate with ING’s Mortgage Simplifier. Free extra repayments, no monthly or annual fees. Freedom to make free extra repayments or redraws.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.39 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    6.25 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.20 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,079
    Go to site

    No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $750,000.

  • Fixed Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    6.59 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    7.06 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,190

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

image of houses

Need help with refinancing?

You might have questions that need personal answers. We’ve teamed up with the mortgage brokers at Lendi to get you the answers you need, and a home loan deal you deserve.

Learn more

* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards

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