Aussie property hits $10 trillion: What does this mean for homebuyers?

Despite dire predictions for the economy, Australia's housing market has rebounded to a staggering $10 trillion at the end of August, marking the first instance of hitting this double-digit value since June 2022, according to recent CoreLogic research.

This increase is credited to a combination of elevated home values and an increased stock of housing. At the end of August, the median home value in Australia reached $732,886, with the total stock of housing increasing to 11 million properties.

Since March this year, national home values have been on a recovery path, rising 4.9% through to the end of August. This upswing has erased about half of the preceding downturn between April 2022 and February 2023, when national home values saw a 9.1% decline. Despite the lingering economic challenges, home values are now just 4.6% shy of the peak in April 2022.

These growing values have unfolded against the backdrop of a cost of living crisis, low consumer sentiment levels, and four increases in the cash rate so far this year. Despite this, a few factors have helped sustain the rise in housing values such as net overseas migration, non-borrowing property purchases, and a lack of supply.

CoreLogic currently sees the housing market outlook as uncertain. While borrowing is constrained by a relatively high serviceability buffer, the RBA board is expected to continue its pause in the cash rate. 

Though the economic performance is set to unwind, this brings along a risk of a rise in unemployment, which could pose a higher degree of risk for mortgage serviceability. CoreLogic predicts some of the recent recovery heat could fade by the year-end, while a more robust recovery in housing values will be limited until credit conditions loosen.

Knowing the market as a homebuyer

Supply may remain one of the main drivers in home values. Despite the national cabinet’s announcement of 1.2 million homes and the Housing Australia Future Fund set to pass in parliament, Master Builders Australia predicts a drop in new home starts of 2.1 per cent to around 170,100 for 2023-24. However, long term supply is predicted to pick up, with Master Builders forecasting that “new home starts will peak to just over 241,000 in 2026-27”.

Yet, the short term presents a number of challenges for prospective home buyers. On one hand, rising home values and short-term constraints in supply may pose challenges. On the other hand, the potential easing of credit conditions and a halt to cash rate hikes could provide some relief for existing borrowers.

Borrowers who feel like they could be getting a rate may want to look into a home loan refinance. At Mozo, we have data on a number of home loan providers so that you can compare rates and features.