CBA issues warning for a per capita recession ahead of further RBA rate hikes
In an economics report released today, Commonwealth Bank announced its forecast for a recession in 2023 as Reserve Bank rate hikes finally catch up with consumer spending.
The big bank has pencilled in a final 0.25% rate hike for the 7th February RBA meeting, with at least 0.50% worth of cuts predicted for the end of the year as the Australian economy slows. This would mean a cash rate peak of 3.35% in a few weeks.
But with other big banks like Westpac still hedging bets on another 0.75% worth of rises this year (with a 3.85% peak in May), is the RBA at risk of fumbling the ‘soft landing’ in its war against inflation?
Australian GDP to drag in 2023, consumer spending and employment signs to watch
Despite inflation running away from us last year, wages haven’t kept pace with the times. Households have mostly had to absorb price shocks and rate hikes with extra savings accumulated during the early years of the pandemic.
Many fixed rates on home loans are set to expire in 2023 as well, which have so far ‘blunted’ the impact of rate hikes against a sizable chunk of Australian mortgages. Property prices have also plummeted, eating into the equity and value that had previously boomed to record growth in May 2022.
CBA calls these forces the winds of a perfect storm. All will sweep across Aussie households and place pressure on consumer spending, which until now has been cited as ‘high’ and ‘strong’ by the RBA when justifying rate hikes.
Another critical bellwether – the employment rate – is expected to wobble. CBA forecasts that as businesses feel the squeeze, unemployment could lift to 4.25% by the end of the year. For context, CBA holds a 4.0% unemployment rate by October as an ideal “soft landing” for the tightening economy. Currently, unemployment is at 3.5% .
These predictions only matter if the RBA rests official interest rates at 3.35% in February. Pushing the cash rate higher (as NAB and Westpac expect) could destabilise the soft landing the RBA hopes for.
This could result in what CBA calls a “per capita recession”, meaning the GDP won’t grow as fast as the Australian population. This is different from a 'technical' recession, which is a dramatic loss in GDP growth over consecutive quarters regardless of the population numbers, such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
However, some pundits claim that the distinction between a per capita and technical recession is unhelpful at best and nonsense at worst. As Australian economics expert David Taylor put it on Twitter, it’s a “fancy way of saying no technical recession but it’ll sure feel like one”.
CBA forecasting a ‘per capita’ Australian recession for 2023 — fancy way of saying no technical recession but it’ll sure feel like one
— David Taylor (@DaveTaylorNews) January 19, 2023
“Path of the cash rate” to dominate the Australian economy as households prepare
RBA decisions remain a key figure to watch in 2023. By beginning its record-breaking tightening cycle last year, the central bank has marked inflation as the enemy and remained committed to bringing it under control – despite the threat rate hikes pose to overly indebted households.
Rate cuts forecasted for the end of the year may bring an iota of relief, but this depends on the RBA holding a calmer, more dovish course than many pundits expect. CBA’s report highlights the real risk of the central bank overdoing it and sparking a recession, which could stress family budgets on top of inflation and high mortgage repayments.
“Monetary and fiscal policy are the key uncertainties – the path of the cash rate from here will play the dominant role in determining economic outcomes in 2023,” says CBA head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird.
“Recession is not our base case, though a quarterly contraction in economic activity in 2023 is a distinct possibility.”
Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia not meeting in January, a trickle of variable rate changes has come through from lenders reading the landscape. Buyers may have an opportunity to leap into a quieter (and cheaper) housing market this year, but borrowers will need to watch their budgets carefully.
Subscribe to Moneyzone for weekly home loan and property insights. Keen on guarding yourself against rate hikes? Compare fixed-rate home loans below.
Fixed home loan comparisons on Mozo
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-
Fixed Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal and Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.54
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.93
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,852
Competitive fixed rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Additional repayments up to $20,000 per year without penalty. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.
- Interest rate
-
1 year - 5.84% p.a. (6.01% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.54% p.a. (5.93% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.94% p.a. (6.01% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.14% p.a. (6.08% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.14% p.a. (6.09% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
5.98% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$495
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$325.00
- Package
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 90.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $50,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $3,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- -
- Extra repayments
- -
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
- -
- Offset account
- yes- optional with $10/month
- Split account
- -
- Other restrictions
- Settlement fee comprises of settlement fee and loan processing fee. Valuation fee varies.
- Other benefits
- -
- Special offers
- -
Read reviews and learn more about NRMA Insurance home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Express Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.54
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.11
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,852
Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).
- Interest rate
-
1 year - 5.84% p.a. (6.19% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.54% p.a. (6.11% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.04% p.a. (6.21% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.04% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.04% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.09% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$134
- Ongoing fees
-
$10.00 monthly
- Discharge fee
-
$350.00
- Package
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 90.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $5,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
- yes - up to 20% during the fixed period
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
- $0.00
- Offset account
- yes - partial only
- Split account
- no
- Other restrictions
- Electronic Valuation: $134. Full Valuation <$1m: $220 and>$1m: $440. Loan applicable when buying or refinancing an established property in a capital city or major regional centre.
- Other benefits
- -
- Special offers
- -
Read reviews and learn more about Bendigo Bank home loans
Go to site
-
Fixed Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal and Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.54
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.93
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,852
Competitive fixed rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Additional repayments up to $20,000 per year without penalty. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.
- Interest rate
-
1 year - 5.84% p.a. (6.01% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.54% p.a. (5.93% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.94% p.a. (6.01% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.14% p.a. (6.08% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.14% p.a. (6.09% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
5.98% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$495
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$325.00
- Package
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 90.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $50,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $3,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- -
- Extra repayments
- -
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
- -
- Offset account
- yes- optional with $10/month
- Split account
- -
- Other restrictions
- Settlement fee comprises of settlement fee and loan processing fee. Valuation fee varies.
- Other benefits
- -
- Special offers
- -
Read reviews and learn more about NRMA Insurance home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Express Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.54
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.11
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,852
Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).
- Interest rate
-
1 year - 5.84% p.a. (6.19% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.54% p.a. (6.11% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.04% p.a. (6.21% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.04% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.04% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.09% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$134
- Ongoing fees
-
$10.00 monthly
- Discharge fee
-
$350.00
- Package
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 90.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $5,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
- yes - up to 20% during the fixed period
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
- $0.00
- Offset account
- yes - partial only
- Split account
- no
- Other restrictions
- Electronic Valuation: $134. Full Valuation <$1m: $220 and>$1m: $440. Loan applicable when buying or refinancing an established property in a capital city or major regional centre.
- Other benefits
- -
- Special offers
- -
Read reviews and learn more about Bendigo Bank home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <60%
- Interest rate
-
5.59
%
p.a.
Fixed 5 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.27
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,867
Get repayment certainty with HSBC’s low 2 Year Fixed Rate Home Loan. Make up to $10,000 of extra repayments a year. The option to split your home loan between fixed and variable. Plus, score $3,288 cashback when you refinance an existing home loan of $250,000. Must apply by 28 February 2023 and settle by 30 April 2023.
- Interest rate
-
1 year - 5.79% p.a. (6.47% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.59% p.a. (6.40% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.59% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.59% p.a. (6.31% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.59% p.a. (6.27% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$0
- Ongoing fees
-
$390.00 yearly
- Discharge fee
-
$300.00
- Package
-
Home Loan Package
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $7,500,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
- yes - free up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
- no
- Minimum redraw amount
- -
- Offset account
- no
- Split account
- yes
- Other restrictions
- -
- Other benefits
- -
- Special offers
- -
Read reviews and learn more about HSBC home loans
-
Fixed Rate
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <80% LVR
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.81
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
- Interest rate
-
1 year - 6.14% p.a. (7.13% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.94% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.81% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.75% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.99% p.a. (6.69% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
7.24% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$160
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$160.00
- Package
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $20,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- -
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
- yes - free up to to lesser of 5% of original fixed loan amount, or $5,000 each year
- Redraw facility
- no
- Minimum redraw amount
- -
- Offset account
- Optional - $10 per month - 1 year fixed term only
- Split account
- yes
- Other restrictions
- -
- Other benefits
- No monthly fee after end of fixed rate term. Lock your fixed rate for 90 days for a fee of $750 per $1m in lending (or part thereof).
- Special offers
- $3,000 cashback for eligible First Home Buyers borrowing $250k+, $2,000 cashback when you refinance loans of $250k+, <80% LVR, settle within 180 days for first home buyers, 120 days for refinances. Excludes refinances from ANZ, ANZ Plus and Suncorp.
Read reviews and learn more about ANZ home loans
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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