Downturn might not be as severe as expected, says RBA in June meeting

By Niko Iliakis · · 3 min read
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The RBA continues to monitor the current downturn as it unfolds, with Governor Philip Lowe confirming that both fiscal and monetary policy decisions are working as intended.

“Over the past month, infection rates have declined in many countries and there has been some easing of restrictions on activity,” he said.

“If this continues, a recovery in the global economy will get under way, supported by both the large fiscal packages and the significant easing in monetary policies.”

While the economy is tracking better than expected, the RBA still expects a contraction of up to 10% over the June quarter. How soon domestic conditions will recover depends on how quickly Australians can regain confidence in their finances. 

Consumer spending fell dramatically as a result of the economic shutdown. The fear now is that even once the virus is contained and restrictions are lifted, the cautiousness that many are exhibiting will persist.

The drop-off in business investment will be another sticking point. In its quarterly outlook released last month, the Board said uncertainty stemming from the pandemic has led many firms to defer or cancel non-essential capital expenditure.

RELATED: RBA Governor warns against cutting off JobKeeper prematurely

As expected, the cash rate was held at the record low of 0.25%. The RBA has repeatedly said that official interest rates will remain at their current levels until inflation is within the 2-3% target range and progress is made towards full employment.

But some prominent voices have called on the RBA to rethink its position. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans recently urged the Board to take interest rates negative to allow mortgage holders and businesses to borrow at even lower costs. 

As for the RBA’s bond purchasing program, activity has been dialled back considerably, with the Board purchasing government securities on only one occasion since its last meeting. 

“The Bank is prepared to scale-up its bond purchases again and will do whatever is necessary to ensure bond markets remain functional and to achieve the yield target for 3-year AGS,” Lowe said.

“The target will remain in place until progress is being made towards the goals for full employment and inflation.”

The big question now is whether Australia is technically in the midst of a recession. While the economy is expected to shrink over the June quarter, there’s still some uncertainty about the previous one. We’ll have a verdict on Wednesday with the release of the GDP report.

What’s the outlook for home loans?

The current interest rate setting has put mortgage rates at all-time lows. Among providers in our database, the average 2-year fixed home loan rate sits at 2.98% p.a., while the average variable rate is slightly higher at 3.43% p.a.

Cuts from lenders have flowed through continuously since March, with the majority levelled against fixed rate options. Over the last two months, Mozo recorded 578 cases of lenders reducing fixed rates.

At the time of writing, the lowest fixed rate in our database is 2.19% p.a., which is offered by a number of lenders, including Well Home Loans (2.44% p.a. comparison rate*), Reduce Home Loans (2.54% p.a. comparison rate*), and ING (3.79% p.a. comparison rate*).

What about savings accounts?

Among providers we track, 87 have lowered their at-call savings rates since March, leaving the market average at a paltry 0.74% p.a. 86 400, Bank of Queensland and Up Bank currently offer the joint highest ongoing bonus rate at 1.85% p.a. — 1.11% higher than average.

If we consider just the big banks, the average savings rate sits at just 0.36% p.a. Out of the four, Westpac offers the highest ongoing rate at 1.05% p.a., available so long as account holders make at least one deposit per month and have a higher balance than at the beginning of the month. 

For those who don’t mind parting with their savings for an extended period of time, term deposits are a good way to hedge against further interest rate cuts. 

Judo Bank currently offers rates between 1.65% p.a. and 2.15% p.a. on 1 year to 5 terms. For those after short-term investment options, Qudos Bank’s rates go as high as 1.80% p.a. on 3 to 12 month terms.

For more information, visit our home loan, savings account and term deposit comparison pages. And if you’re after tips to keep your finances in good health amid the current crisis, browse our coronavirus financial guide.

Read last month's Reserve Bank interest rates update.

Mozo may receive payment if you click products on our site. We don’t compare the entire market, but you can compare more home loans here.
Last updated 30 October 2024 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*

Home loan comparisons on Mozo

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  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal and Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.93 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Competitive fixed rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Additional repayments up to $20,000 per year without penalty. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Fixed Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).

  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal and Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.93 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Competitive fixed rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Additional repayments up to $20,000 per year without penalty. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.

  • Fixed Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Fixed 5 years
    Comparison rate
    6.27 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,867

    Get repayment certainty with HSBC’s low 2 Year Fixed Rate Home Loan. Make up to $10,000 of extra repayments a year. The option to split your home loan between fixed and variable. Plus, score $3,288 cashback when you refinance an existing home loan of $250,000. Must apply by 28 February 2023 and settle by 30 April 2023.

  • Fixed Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.81 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

  • Variable Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal and Interest
    Interest rate
    5.98 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.02 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,991
    Go to site

    Competitive variable rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Unlimited additional repayments. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Discounted Home Value Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995

    Enjoy competitive rates for owner occupiers. Enjoy unlimited free extra repayments. Flexibility to redraw additional payments for free. No ongoing monthly service fee. Receive $3,288 cashback when you refinance an existing home loan. Minimum loan amount of $250,000, settle within 120 days from applying.

  • Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.22 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Get online approval from the award-winning Bendigo Bank Express Home Loan. Multiple offset accounts and redraw available. 100% offset on variable rate loans and partial offset on fixed rate. Flexible repayment options. New home loans only.

  • Mortgage Simplifier

    • LVR<80%
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.17 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043

    Get a competitive variable rate with ING’s Mortgage Simplifier. Free extra repayments, no monthly or annual fees. Freedom to make free extra repayments or redraws.

  • Elevate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    6.18 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.18 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,056

    Get competitive rates on loan terms of 5 to 30 years with the Aussie Elevate Home Loan. Structure your loan with up to five splits. Make additional repayments (T&Cs apply). Offset accounts available. Unlimited redraw using your online banking account. Choose from weekly, fortnightly or monthly payments For loan amounts from $10,000 to $5 million.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.

While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.