Property values could reach new price peak in two months, new Domain report shows
Great news for homeowners, bad news for home buyers: Domain says house and unit prices in Australia’s capital cities will fully recover value lost in the 2022 downturn by the end of 2023 – in two months.
According to Domain’s House Price Report for the September quarter, house prices will reach a new peak in the capital cities if they gain another $2,000 in value. Units, usually the most affordable option for first-home buyers, only need $5,000.
The report suggests price growth is primarily driven by interstate and overseas migration, a tight rental market, and chronic real estate undersupply. This is the third month in a row that property values have surged in Australia, as well, though Domain writes the pace of growth has slowed somewhat in September (1.8% growth).
“It is worth pointing out that the pace of growth is currently being somewhat contained by the stretched affordability,” explains Domain’s chief of research and economics, Nicola Powell.
“If mortgage rates weren’t as high as they currently are, price growth would be faster with the current housing undersupply. So for buyers who are in the position of considering purchasing, it is important to weigh up the pros and cons of delaying their purchasing timing along with financial planning.”
Currently, the average variable interest rate for owner-occupiers is 6.61% p.a. in the Mozo database, but if the RBA hikes interest rates in November, this average will undoubtedly climb.
How far median Australian property prices are from their peak (Domain - Oct 2023)
City | Median house price | Price from peak | Median unit price | Price from peak |
Sydney | $1,578,099 | -0.8% | $781,024 | -3.0% |
Melbourne | $1,032,266 | -5.7% | $573,067 | -4.7% |
Brisbane | $848,752 | -1.0% | $495,143 | 0.0% |
Adelaide | $844,654 | 0.0% | $466,379 | 0.0% |
Canberra | $1,042,730 | -11.3% | $567,059 | -7.0% |
Perth | $713,811 | 0.0% | $379,347 | -10.1% |
Hobart | $717,004 | -6.1% | $503,133 | -11.5% |
Darwin | $577,659 | -14.9% | $369,860 | -24.0% |
Combined capitals | $1,072,480 | -0.2% | $622,743 | -0.8% |
Home loan amounts needed to buy property inevitably increase as prices do. The average mortgage size in Australia is already at an eye-watering $585k, and Aussies need six-figure savings to afford the standard home loan deposit.
A new price peak could make affording a home loan a lot trickier for first-home buyers – and if interest rates go high enough, it could ironically kill capital growth. Therefore, the cost of housing finance is a critical bellwether to watch in the housing market, not just prices.
However, Domain says the home value momentum is self-sustaining for now.
“September’s quarter confirms all Australian capital cities are in recovery or at a price peak,” says Powell.
“Sydney continues to lead the recovery, with Brisbane close by. By the end of the calendar year, house prices in Sydney and Brisbane are anticipated to recover fully from the 2022 downturn, reaching new records.”
Finding a unique way into the property market, such as government schemes or rentvesting far afield, might be the only foot in the door many Australians can get. If you are in a position to get a home loan, be sure to compare some of the better ones on our best home loans hub.
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Compare low rate home loans in the table below.
Compare low rate home loans - last updated 20 May 2024
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Featured Product
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2024
Unloan Variable
Owner Occupier, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment5.99% p.a. variable5.90% p.a.Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
CompareCompareUnloan Variable
Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.90% p.a.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.90% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $0
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $0.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Unloan Unloan Variable
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Offset Home Loan
Package, Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.14% p.a. variable6.39% p.a.Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
CompareCompareOffset Home Loan
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.39% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.39% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $350
- Ongoing fees
- $248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
- $400.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Macquarie Offset Home Loan
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Fixed Rate
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, <80% LVR
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.54% p.a.
fixed 2 years7.10% p.a.Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
CompareCompareFixed Rate
Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
- interest rate
- 6.59% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 7.06% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.59% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 7.06% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $160
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $160.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free up to to lesser of 5% of original fixed loan amount, or $5,000 each year
- Redraw facility
- no
- Offset account
- Optional - $10 per month - 1 year fixed term only
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- -
- type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- $3,000 cashback for eligible First Home Buyers, $2,000 cashback when you refinance loans of $250k+, apply from 1 Dec 2022, settle within 180 days.
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the ANZ Fixed Rate
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Basic Home Loan
Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.14% p.a. variable6.16% p.a.Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.
CompareCompareBasic Home Loan
Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.16% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.16% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $350
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $400.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Macquarie Basic Home Loan
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Fixed Rate Loan with Orange Advantage
Orange Advantage, Owner Occupiers, Principal & Interest, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.09% p.a.
fixed 2 years6.16% p.a.Know exactly what your repayments will be, and you can fix your rate for up to 5 years. No monthly, annual fee or transaction fees. Free additional repayments (less than $10,000 p.a.). Valid for loans of $50,000 up to $2,000,000.
CompareCompareFixed Rate Loan with Orange Advantage
Know exactly what your repayments will be, and you can fix your rate for up to 5 years. No monthly, annual fee or transaction fees. Free additional repayments (less than $10,000 p.a.). Valid for loans of $50,000 up to $2,000,000.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 6.12% p.a.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 6.12% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $299
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $250.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free up to $10,000 pa
- Redraw facility
- no
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $2,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the ING Fixed Rate Loan with Orange Advantage
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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