What does the RBA have in store for February - and the rest of 2018?

The Reserve Bank board is set to have its first meeting of 2018 next week and although there have been predictions of a rate rise this year, Mozo’s Peter Marshall has said a change in February is unlikely.

The RBA has been sitting on its hands for a while now, with no changes to the official cash rate since August 2016.

Official rate rises have been even rarer in Australia - in fact, the last one was seven years ago, in November 2010. But according to Marshall, the low rate environment can’t last forever, and 2018 might just be the year that breaks the downward trend of Australia’s official cash rate.

“The RBA have already said they consider the ‘new normal’ cash rate to be 3.50%, which is quite a bit higher than the 1.50% we’re sitting on now. So they’ve already signalled a desire to start pushing the cash rate higher in the future,” said Marshall.

RELATED: Best home loans for January 2018: Mozo Editor’s picks

Despite that, conditions will have to be right before the Reserve Bank makes a move. Key economic indicators such as wages, employment numbers, inflation and consumer confidence levels need to start moving in the right direction to make a rate rise possible in 2018.

All this takes time, which means a February rate change is more or less off the table this year.

“I’d say there’s a growing argument for a Reserve Bank rate rise later in 2018, or maybe even two, but for February, it would be a surprise to see a change. The RBA are likely to stick to their policy of cautious slow movement this year, which means it’s too early for them to make any move at this stage of the game,” said Marshall.

One factor that might still temper the RBA’s desire to start nudging rates up is the high level of household debt Aussies are facing. With close to 30% or more than 921,000 Aussies households under mortgage stress, according to a recent report from Digital Finance Analytics, pushing interest rates higher still is not a move the Reserve Bank will make lightly.

“The banks don’t have to raise home loan rates when the RBA raises the cash rate, but there’s every chance they will. The RBA are aware of this, and will be very careful about adding any more pressure to already struggling households,” Marshall explained.

If your home loan repayments are stretching the family budget thin, you might want to consider refinancing your home loan to find a better deal. To get you started, check out some refinancing loans in the table below.

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Last updated 10 February 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
What are your home loan needs?

Your loan-to-value ratio (LVR): 50%

Loan amount and LVR will affect interest rates.

  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Promoted

    Basic Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    5.55 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.05 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,855
    Go to site

    No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

  • Promoted

    Variable Home Loan 90

    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.08 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.

  • Promoted

    OMG Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <60% LVR
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.02 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    BCU Bank’s OMG owner occupied home loan offers a variety of great low rates depending on your deposit. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Access your extra payments when you need to through the redraw facility. Pre-approval valid for 3 months.

  • Promoted

    Offset Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <70%
    Interest rate
    5.55 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.28 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,855
    Go to site

    Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

  • Promoted

    Basic Variable Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.13 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,040
    Go to site

    Competitive interest rate. No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees. You can redraw your repayments if you’re ahead. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly. Make extra payments without penalty, to pay off your home loan even faster.

  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site

    Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.

  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<80%
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.21 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site

    Get repayment security with fixed rates from one to five years. Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period. Fix a portion of your loan and leave the rest variable. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly.

  • Promoted

    Intro Discounted Standard Variable Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.20 % p.a.
    Variable for 12 months and then 6.60% p.a.
    Comparison rate
    6.56 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,191
    Go to site

    Enjoy a discount of 0.40% p.a. applied for the first 12 months of the loan. No application, account or establishment fees to pay to help pay. Make additional repayments without being penalised. Other fees may apply. 20% deposit required.

  • Promoted

    Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <95%
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.20 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site

    Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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