What does the RBA have in store for February - and the rest of 2018?

Kelly Emmerton

30 Jan 2018

Rba interest rates february 2018 content

The Reserve Bank board is set to have its first meeting of 2018 next week and although there have been predictions of a rate rise this year, Mozo’s Peter Marshall has said a change in February is unlikely.

The RBA has been sitting on its hands for a while now, with no changes to the official cash rate since August 2016.

Official rate rises have been even rarer in Australia - in fact, the last one was seven years ago, in November 2010. But according to Marshall, the low rate environment can’t last forever, and 2018 might just be the year that breaks the downward trend of Australia’s official cash rate.

“The RBA have already said they consider the ‘new normal’ cash rate to be 3.50%, which is quite a bit higher than the 1.50% we’re sitting on now. So they’ve already signalled a desire to start pushing the cash rate higher in the future,” said Marshall.

RELATED: Best home loans for January 2018: Mozo Editor’s picks

Despite that, conditions will have to be right before the Reserve Bank makes a move. Key economic indicators such as wages, employment numbers, inflation and consumer confidence levels need to start moving in the right direction to make a rate rise possible in 2018.

All this takes time, which means a February rate change is more or less off the table this year.

“I’d say there’s a growing argument for a Reserve Bank rate rise later in 2018, or maybe even two, but for February, it would be a surprise to see a change. The RBA are likely to stick to their policy of cautious slow movement this year, which means it’s too early for them to make any move at this stage of the game,” said Marshall.

One factor that might still temper the RBA’s desire to start nudging rates up is the high level of household debt Aussies are facing. With close to 30% or more than 921,000 Aussies households under mortgage stress, according to a recent report from Digital Finance Analytics, pushing interest rates higher still is not a move the Reserve Bank will make lightly.

“The banks don’t have to raise home loan rates when the RBA raises the cash rate, but there’s every chance they will. The RBA are aware of this, and will be very careful about adding any more pressure to already struggling households,” Marshall explained.

If your home loan repayments are stretching the family budget thin, you might want to consider refinancing your home loan to find a better deal. To get you started, check out some refinancing loans in the table below.

Competitive loans to refinance your mortgage

Rates updated daily. Advertiser disclosure.

  • loans.com.au
    Mozo Expert Choice Badge" style="width:60px;">

    1.99% p.a.variable for 12 months and then 2.48% p.a.

    2.47% p.a.

    $1234

    Product details Close details
    Smart Booster Home Loan

    1 Year Discounted Variable Rate, Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, <80% LVR

    1.99% p.a.variable for 12 months and then 2.48% p.a.

    2.47% p.a.

    A super low introductory rate home loan with no monthly or ongoing fees. Unlimited free redraws and unlimited additional repayments to help you build your equity and own your home sooner. Multiple loan splits available. (Rates revert after introductory period ends). 20% minimum deposit required. Winner of two Mozo Expert's Choice Award for 2021.

    Smart Booster Home Loan

    A super low introductory rate home loan with no monthly or ongoing fees. Unlimited free redraws and unlimited additional repayments to help you build your equity and own your home sooner. Multiple loan splits available. (Rates revert after introductory period ends). 20% minimum deposit required. Winner of two Mozo Expert's Choice Award for 2021.

    • $0.00

    • $0.00

    • yes - free

    • yes - free

    • Optional - with 0.10% additional interest

    • $520

    • 1.99% p.a.variable for 12 months and then 2.48% p.a.

    • 2.47% p.a.

    • $520

    • 80.00%

    • $50,000

    • $1,000,000

    • Variable

    • Principal & Interest

    • Owner Occupier

    • Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Smart Booster Home Loan

    Details Close

  • Macquarie

    p.a.

    2.43% p.a.

    $1234

    Product details Close details
    Basic Home Loan

    Fixed, Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, LVR<70%

    p.a.

    2.43% p.a.

    Get a flexible loan structure with up to six loan accounts with different rate types. Make free extra repayments. Enjoy free redraw facility. No upfront or ongoing fees. Option to earn Qantas points.

    Basic Home Loan

    Get a flexible loan structure with up to six loan accounts with different rate types. Make free extra repayments. Enjoy free redraw facility. No upfront or ongoing fees. Option to earn Qantas points.

    • $0.00

    • $400.00

    • yes - free

    • yes - free

    • no

    • $0

    • p.a.

    • 2.43% p.a.

    • $0

    • 70.00%

    • $150,000

    • $750,000

    • Fixed

    • Principal & Interest

    • Owner Occupier

    • Monthly

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Basic Home Loan

    Details Close

  • UBank

    p.a.

    2.22% p.a.

    $1234

    Product details Close details
    UHomeLoan

    Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest

    p.a.

    2.22% p.a.

    $0 fees and easy application. Choose between weekly, fortnightly or monthly repayments. 3 year fixed rates are for new Owner Occupier Principal & Interest loans.

    UHomeLoan

    $0 fees and easy application. Choose between weekly, fortnightly or monthly repayments. 3 year fixed rates are for new Owner Occupier Principal & Interest loans.

    • $0.00

    • $0.00

    • yes - free up to $20,000 p.a.

    • no

    • no

    • $0

    • p.a.

    • 2.22% p.a.

    • $0

    • 80.00%

    • $100,000

    • $2,000,000

    • Fixed

    • Principal & Interest

    • Owner Occupier

    • Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly

    • $395 Establishment fee waived for fixed rate loans that settle by 30 September 2022. Receive 1.75% 3 year fixed rate when you apply by 29 April 2021 and settle within 90 days.

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the UHomeLoan

    Details Close

  • Athena
    Mozo Expert Choice Badge" style="width:60px;">

    2.19% p.a.

    2.19% p.a.

    $1234

    Product details Close details
    Celebrate Variable Home Loan

    <60% LVR, Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest

    2.19% p.a.

    2.19% p.a.

    Fast and efficient online application. Automatic discounts as loan is paid off. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Zero fees to consider. Min 40% deposit required. Winner of three Mozo Expert's Choice Award for 2021.

    Celebrate Variable Home Loan

    Fast and efficient online application. Automatic discounts as loan is paid off. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Zero fees to consider. Min 40% deposit required. Winner of three Mozo Expert's Choice Award for 2021.

    • $0.00

    • $0.00

    • yes - free

    • yes - free

    • no

    • $0

    • 2.19% p.a.

    • 2.19% p.a.

    • $0

    • 60.00%

    • $100,000

    • $2,000,000

    • Variable

    • Principal & Interest

    • Owner Occupier

    • Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Celebrate Variable Home Loan

    Details Close

  • Tic:Toc

    p.a.

    2.15% p.a.

    $1234

    Product details Close details
    Fixed Home Loan

    Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest

    p.a.

    2.15% p.a.

    Award-winning low rate home loan that could save you thousands. No application or ongoing fees, fee-free redraws, unlimited additional repayments and an optional offset account for $10/month. Minimum 10% deposit. Winner of Mozo’s Experts Choice Award for Online Home Lender of the Year 2021.^

    Fixed Home Loan

    Award-winning low rate home loan that could save you thousands. No application or ongoing fees, fee-free redraws, unlimited additional repayments and an optional offset account for $10/month. Minimum 10% deposit. Winner of Mozo’s Experts Choice Award for Online Home Lender of the Year 2021.^

    • $0.00

    • $325.00

    • yes - free, up to $20,000 p.a.

    • yes - free

    • Optional - $10 per month

    • $0

    • p.a.

    • 2.15% p.a.

    • $0

    • 90.00%

    • $50,000

    • $2,000,000

    • Fixed

    • Principal & Interest

    • Owner Occupier

    • Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly

    Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Fixed Home Loan

    Details Close

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home loans Awards