Mozo Live: NAB makes big rate cut call, Easter spending and savings mistakes to avoid

Today’s blog is now closed. You can follow more banking news and interest rate updates on our latest live blog.

If you’re reading the headlines this week and scratching your head, you’re not alone. Things have been chaotic to say the least.

Thankfully there are some things we do know, that can help us make more sense of the economy and markets today.

So, with the help of Westpac economist, Illiana Jain, here goes:

• The US hit pause on tariffs: US President Donald Trump instituted a 90-day pause on tariffs which saw US equities rally and the yield curve flatten. 

• Yield curve - what’s that? The yield curve for government bonds is an important indicator in financial markets. It helps determine how changes in the policy interest rate, along with changes in other monetary policy tools, feed through to a broad range of interest rates in the economy.

• Right, and government bonds are ...? A bond is basically a loan made by an investor to a borrower for a set period of time in return for regular interest payments. Here, the government makes the loan.

• Investors on the move: Following announcements that tariffs will be paused, investors flocked back into US markets.

• Share markets rise: The S&P 500 closed 9.5% higher, while the NASDAQ was up 12.2% and the Dow Jones 7.9%. 

• US dollar up: The tariffs news added support for the US dollar, the DXY index finished 0.1% higher to 103.01. 

• Aussie dollar up: The AUD climbed 3.26% to 0.6152 against the greenback, still well below the high prior to the announcements of tariffs.

• That's gold: The volatility continued to support gold prices which rose 3.3% to US$3080.35/oz. 

• Oil is slick: Oil prices rose sharply on the announcement, and continued to move up from there. 

• Interest rate cuts: There is an expectation that Australia’s cash rate may be cut from here, especially if the economic mood drops. 

• Positive feeling for now: Funnily enough, amid all this, consumer confidence in Australia has gone up lately, says Roy Morgan.

Okay, that's all for today, folks! Join us again tomorrow for more interest rates, banking and money news. In the meantime, if you're looking for help with your own personal finances, check out the products our experts hand-pick as award winners.

Australian property buyers had more choice in March than a year ago, according to the latest REA Group Listings Report.

The report found that national new listings on realestate.com.au were sitting 6.1% above March 2024 levels, despite a slight 0.6% fall month-on-month. 

For those in the home buying market or at the home loans research stage, more 'for sale' properties can only be a good thing - especially in Sydney and Melbourne where competition can be rather fierce.

Here are some of the key findings:

• National new listing volumes lifted a solid 6.1% in March compared to a year earlier, despite a slight fall (-0.6%) compared to February.

• The strong growth compared to a year ago partly reflects that Easter fell in March in 2024, while it will fall in April this year. This would have subdued housing market activity at the back end of March last year.

• New listings in Sydney (+17.7%) and Melbourne (+13.5%) showed strong growth year-on-year in March. While this is partly due to the timing of Easter in 2024, it continues Sydney and Melbourne’s run of above-average activity in 2025.

• Nearly all capital cities recorded more new listings this year than last. Brisbane was the only exception, which saw new listings fall 5.5% year-on-year. This was likely due to cyclone-related disruptions.

• Activity in regional areas was more subdued, with new listings down 4.6% relative to March 2024.

• Nationally, total listings increased 2.1% over the month to sit 4.0% higher than a year earlier.

If you're wanting to explore some of the top home loans in our database, be sure to visit our Home Loans hub page. 

Hot cross bun buttering, chocolate egg hunting and Sunday lunching. There's a lot to plan for come Easter.

There are also plenty of costs - though this isn't dissuading many Aussies from shopping right now.

Spending across food, travel and DIY projects is expected to jump this April, according to the Australian Retailers Association. 

New data highlights three key areas of spending focus:

• Food (including chocolate): 15 million people plan to splurge on Easter food and chocolate this year – total food spend of $2.2 billion. 
• DIY projects at home: 6 million Australians are planning to use the Easter break for DIY projects around the home, with a total spend of $6.7 billion nationwide, and an average spend of $1,082 per person.
• Travel: 4.55 million people are projected to use the Easter break for travel this year than in 2024, with an estimated spend of $11.1 billion on trips within their own state, interstate and overseas. 

Read more in our full story

And if you're keen to get your savings in order ahead of your Easter-time budget, be sure to check out our Savings Accounts hub page. 

National Australia Bank (NAB) has forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the official cash rate by a whopping 50 basis points in May.

NAB’s latest Monetary Policy Update suggests that the RBA will slash the cash rate to 3.60% at it's next meeting, followed by 25 basis point cuts in July, August and November, as well as another cut in February 2026.

This would bring the cash rate down to 2.6% by early next year.

Taking a look at the other Big Four banks forecasts:

• ANZ is predicting three more cuts, taking the cash rate to 3.35% by August
• CBA predicts one cut per quarter, taking the cash rate to 3.35% by year’s end
• Westpac is also forecasting quarterly cuts, to 3.35% by the end of 2025

Interestingly, the ASX RBA Rate Indicator – a reflection of what the futures market is pricing in – has pegged a 77% chance of a 75 basis point rate cut at the RBA’s May meeting, as of Wednesday April 9, 2025.

A 75 basis point cut is almost unheard of. The last time this occurred was during the Global Financial Crisis in November 2008. Even a 50 bp cut is an historical outlier – the most recent instance being May 2012.

If the futures market is panicking about a sharp economic downturn or overreacting to geopolitical risks – in this case a potential recession – those implied probabilities can look a little out of step with reality.

It's important to note that the ASX RBA Rate Indicator isn’t suggesting the RBA is planning anything so drastic. It's simply a snapshot of the current market mood and sentiment, translated into numbers.

While further rate relief could be on the way, you don’t have to wait for another cash rate decision to negotiate a better rate on your existing home loan. Compare refinance options on Mozo and start saving now.