Are RBA rate hikes actually stopping inflation in the housing market?

By Evlin DuBose · · 3 min read
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Despite 3.75% worth of Reserve Bank rate rises behind us, the housing market seems to have made a remarkable recovery, showing critical signs of life such as lifting auction clearance rates and a rebound in capital values. 

So why are Australians still buying property, despite the high cost of financing a home loan?

Why are house prices going up again? Property returns despite RBA efforts

Collage of rising graphs

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been hitting inflation hard with the monetary hammer, driving interest rates to heights unseen since 2012. But while this has added thousands to the costs of mortgages nationwide, property price growth seems to be on the rise again after a lacklustre year. 

But don’t be fooled, warns Mozo banking expert Peter Marshall. This regrowth is not a sustainable one. 

“Rate hikes aren’t so much affecting the kinds of people buying houses at the moment,” explains Marshall. 

“Of course, they will to some extent. If the rate hikes weren’t happening, house prices would be going through the roof already, but the rate hikes are just keeping that a bit slower than it would be otherwise.”

Instead, this current resurgence is driven by an influx of immigration and cashed-up renters ready to leave their old lifestyles behind – two groups of people unlikely to feel the burn of rate hikes.

“Buying a house is a long-term proposition, and the future of rates is probably – for the people who can afford to handle it right now – a relatively minor issue,” says Marshall. 

“I don’t think rates at this level are doing much to change people’s behaviour in the property market.”

Tight housing supply and hot demand from these groups can largely explain the marginal uptick in property growth. As soon as that demand eases, however, the makers of the next property boom – owner-occupiers and first-home buyers – will still have their path into the market obstructed by high interest rates, and that likely will cool things off again. The momentum we’re currently seeing may be short-lived.

Could rising house prices worsen inflation?

Collage of rising graphs that look like houses

Of course, the conundrum for many is, “If property prices grow, would that worsen inflation and cause more RBA rate hikes?” It’s a valid question. Growth in the housing sector could certainly contribute to inflation – which the RBA is desperate to control. 

However, Marshall admits property growth – or indeed, affordability – isn’t on the central bank’s mind when it comes to raising the cash rate. It’s purely a matter of inflation, and inflation isn’t projected to ease until 2024 – for reasons that may not have anything to do with the RBA.

“It’s unclear how much of an impact the RBA’s actions have had on the economy,” says Marshall. “But it’s probably fairly minimal.”

Marshall projects the central bank has one or two more hikes left, with a hold in June in lieu of waiting for winter wage and employment data. This could put the top of the rate cycle at 4.10% or more by the end of winter. 

“It’s possible the RBA will move in July or August – in fact, it’s quite likely that we’ll see another rate rise,” says Marshall. 

“The May rate rise surprised a lot of economists, but I thought the RBA probably did the right thing. Easing off too soon would have sent the wrong message to people.”

Instead, the central bank has made it resoundingly clear the message is to reel in spending, park your cash in a savings account, and watch your mortgage repayments. Whether or not home buyers hear it is another matter. 

Unhappy with your mortgage? Compare refinance home loans in the table below.

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Last updated 30 October 2024 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*

Refinance home loan comparisons on Mozo

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  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal and Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.93 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Competitive fixed rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Additional repayments up to $20,000 per year without penalty. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Fixed Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).

  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal and Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.93 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Competitive fixed rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Additional repayments up to $20,000 per year without penalty. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.

  • Fixed Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site

    Lock in a low 2 year fixed rate with the Mozo award winning Home Lender of the Year. Available for live-in borrowers with just a 10% deposit required. Free extra repayments (up to 20% in fixed period), free redraw and partial offset available. $10 monthly service fee. Aussie support centre. Fast approvals. Up to 6 free offset accounts (T&Cs apply).

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Fixed 5 years
    Comparison rate
    6.27 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,867

    Get repayment certainty with HSBC’s low 2 Year Fixed Rate Home Loan. Make up to $10,000 of extra repayments a year. The option to split your home loan between fixed and variable. Plus, score $3,288 cashback when you refinance an existing home loan of $250,000. Must apply by 28 February 2023 and settle by 30 April 2023.

  • Fixed Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.81 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

  • Variable Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal and Interest
    Interest rate
    5.98 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.02 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,991
    Go to site

    Competitive variable rate on up to a 30 year loan term. No application fees to pay. Unlimited additional repayments. Free online redraw. Optional 100% offset feature ($10/month) 10% minimum deposit. Fees & charges apply, Australian Credit Licence 237879 is held by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, the credit provider.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Discounted Home Value Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995

    Enjoy competitive rates for owner occupiers. Enjoy unlimited free extra repayments. Flexibility to redraw additional payments for free. No ongoing monthly service fee. Receive $3,288 cashback when you refinance an existing home loan. Minimum loan amount of $250,000, settle within 120 days from applying.

  • Express Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.22 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Get online approval from the award-winning Bendigo Bank Express Home Loan. Multiple offset accounts and redraw available. 100% offset on variable rate loans and partial offset on fixed rate. Flexible repayment options. New home loans only.

  • Mortgage Simplifier

    • LVR<80%
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.17 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043

    Get a competitive variable rate with ING’s Mortgage Simplifier. Free extra repayments, no monthly or annual fees. Freedom to make free extra repayments or redraws.

  • Elevate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    6.18 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.18 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,056

    Get competitive rates on loan terms of 5 to 30 years with the Aussie Elevate Home Loan. Structure your loan with up to five splits. Make additional repayments (T&Cs apply). Offset accounts available. Unlimited redraw using your online banking account. Choose from weekly, fortnightly or monthly payments For loan amounts from $10,000 to $5 million.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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