Will the RBA hike the cash rate in December 2022? CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac home loan predictions

2022 has been the year of inflation. From May to November, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered 275 basis points worth of rate hikes, the consequences of which have been deeply felt by home loan borrowers, especially those with the Big Four banks.
Now, with the year coming to a close, let’s unpack how far we’ve come and where we’re going. What will the RBA decide in its 6 December meeting? And what can we expect from interest rates in 2023?
Effects of interest rate hikes in 2022

As the guardian of Australia’s monetary policy, many expect the RBA to play a critical role in managing inflation. The primary tool at its disposal is the official cash rate.
By cutting the cash rate, RBA liquidates the economy and encourages spending. Raising the cash rate, on the other hand, discourages spending.
The era of pandemic stimulus ended when the RBA first hiked the cash rate in May 2022. Since then, lending and deposit interest rates have shot up.
For context, at the end of March, the average variable home loan rate for owner occupiers (LVR < 80%) in Mozo’s database sat at 3.09% p.a. Now, it’s 5.41% p.a.
The property market has felt the full force of the change, with price falls, capital losses, and reduced borrowing power creating one of the strangest spring selling seasons in recent memory.
Inflation, however, continues to burn through wallets across the country, crushing real wages under the rising cost of living.
At least some savings accounts now start with a ‘4’.
Westpac, CBA, NAB, and ANZ rate predictions for December 2022

Some of the leading interest rate predictions this year have come from the Big Four banks, all of which have dutifully passed along the full rate hike every month since May.
While past months have faced split prediction camps, all four agree that another 25 bp rate hike will come in December (pushing the cash rate up to 3.10%).
The big banks disagree, however, on whether a December rate hike will be the peak of this tightening cycle, or if there’s more to come next year.
Westpac has led the hawkish pack with steep predictions from the outset. According to the bank’s reasoning, movements to the cash rate affect not only savings accounts and home loans, but the economic mindset.
If everyone expects everything to go up, Westpac argues businesses could continue passing along cost and wage increases – thus, spending never slows. However, if the RBA sends a clear and resounding message with dramatic rate hikes, it encourages everyone to batten down the hatches instead.
As such, Westpac and ANZ agree that the cash rate will climb another 75 bp into 2023, settling at 3.85% in May.
Commonwealth Bank leads the dovish quarter: the bank reckons December’s decision will be the last of the cycle, though there is room for the RBA to adjust its course if inflation holds strong in the new year.
NAB finds the middle ground between the two camps with a 3.60% peak in March 2023.
Cash rate peak predictions from the big banks (28 November 2022)
December 2022 | February 2023 | March 2023 | April 2023 | May 2023 | |
CBA | 3.10% | - | - | - | - |
NAB | 3.10% | 3.35% | 3.60% | - | - |
ANZ | 3.10% | 3.35% | 3.60% | Nil | 3.85% |
Westpac | 3.10% | 3.35% | 3.60% | Nil | 3.85% |
The RBA doesn’t meet in January. Neither ANZ nor Westpac expects a decision in April 2023.
Loan details
Repayment change if rates change
What’s the best way to handle mortgage rate hikes?

As late as November 2021, the RBA had been predicting it wouldn’t raise the cash rate above its historic 0.10% low until 2024. Patently, this hasn’t been the case.
In a statement to a Senate committee, RBA governor Philip Lowe recently apologised to Australian homeowners who jumped into the housing market based on this embarrassingly hollow promise.
However, Lowe argues rising mortgage costs and a decline in purchasing power are necessary trade-offs to fighting inflation, which will ‘naturally’ come down by 2024.
In the meantime, rising mortgage rates will remain the nemesis of household budgets. Here are some strategies you can take to keep up with repayments.
- Budget, budget, budget. Especially with holiday spending coming up, now’s the time to budget your monthly expenses and see where you can give or take.
- Pay down your principal to save on interest. Many consumers still have savings from the pandemic. If you can, consider making extra repayments to reduce the interest you have to pay later.
- Talk to your lender. They can help strategise how to manage your repayments or, even better, sometimes lower your rate – you might be surprised how much you can negotiate!
- Go green. Recent research found that greening your home with energy-efficient features could add up to 10% in value and potentially make you eligible for a green home loan (which can come with rewards like a lower interest rate).
- Compare home loans. While refinancing can be a pile of paperwork and hoops to jump through, it’s infinitely preferable to suffering under a home loan you can’t afford. Compare home loans on offer to see if you could switch and save somewhere else. Look for features like a low interest rate, offset account, or a redraw facility.
Compare home loans below.
-
Promoted
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
Unloan Variable Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 20% min deposit
- Redraw available
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.65
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
- Built by CommBank
- The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
- No application or banking fees
- interest rate
-
5.74% p.a. (5.65% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
Rate automatically discounted by 0.01% p.a. every year up to a maximum discount of 0.30% p.a..
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Unloan home loans
Go to site -
Promoted
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Offset Home Loan - 2025
- First Home Buyer Loan - 2025
Variable Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 10% min deposit
- Offset available
- Redraw available
- Interest rate
-
5.78
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.82
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,927
- $0 application fee to pay
- Unlimited additional repayments
- Apply in as little as 15 minutes
- interest rate
-
5.78% p.a. (5.82% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$495.40
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$325.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$3,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free online, fees apply for assisted redraws
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$1.00
- Offset account
-
yes - optional for $10 per month - comparison rate does not include this fee.
- Split account
-
-
- Other restrictions
-
Settlement fee comprises of upfront fee and loan processing fee. Valuation fee varies. Comparison rates displayed do not take into account the Optional Offset Account monthly fee.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about NRMA Home Loans home loans
Go to site -
Promoted
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Fixed rate
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 5% min deposit
- Interest rate
-
5.49
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.91
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,836
- No ongoing annual fees
- Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
- Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (5.98% p.a. comparison rate)
2 years - 5.49% p.a. (5.91% p.a. comparison rate)
3 years - 5.59% p.a. (5.90% p.a. comparison rate)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.19% p.a. comparison rate)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.23% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
5.98% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Additional repayments allowed up to $25,000 during the fixed period.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
Go to site -
Promoted
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Fixed rate
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest only
- 20% min deposit
- Interest rate
-
5.49
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.96
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,836
- Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
- Split loan available
- Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.03% p.a. comparison rate)
2 years - 5.49% p.a. (5.96% p.a. comparison rate)
3 years - 5.59% p.a. (5.94% p.a. comparison rate)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.23% p.a. comparison rate)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.26% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.04% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest, Interest Only
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
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Promoted
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- First Home Buyer Loan - 2025
Variable Home Loan 90
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 10% min deposit
- Offset available
- Redraw available
- Interest rate
-
5.79
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.83
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,931
- No monthly or ongoing fees
- Option to add an offset for 0.10% p.a.
- interest rate
-
5.79% p.a. (5.83% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$530.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Offset sub-account available for additional +0.10%. $300 discharge fee and $250 discharge documentation fee applicable if loan doesnt go to full term.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about loans.com.au home loans
Go to site
-
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
2-Year Discounted - Simple Home Loan Variable
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 40% min deposit
- Redraw available
- Interest rate
-
5.49
%
p.a.
Variable for 24 months and then 5.74% p.a.
- Comparison rate
-
5.69
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,836
- interest rate
-
5.74% p.a. (5.69% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$175.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$300,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Valuation and legal fees covered up to $1,000. Anything above this charged at cost. Only available through the exclusive link. Capital city or major regional centre only.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about First Option Bank home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Fixed rate
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 5% min deposit
- Interest rate
-
5.49
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.91
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,836
- No ongoing annual fees
- Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
- Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (5.98% p.a. comparison rate)
2 years - 5.49% p.a. (5.91% p.a. comparison rate)
3 years - 5.59% p.a. (5.90% p.a. comparison rate)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.19% p.a. comparison rate)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.23% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
5.98% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Additional repayments allowed up to $25,000 during the fixed period.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Fixed rate
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest only
- 20% min deposit
- Interest rate
-
5.49
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
5.96
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,836
- Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
- Split loan available
- Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.03% p.a. comparison rate)
2 years - 5.49% p.a. (5.96% p.a. comparison rate)
3 years - 5.59% p.a. (5.94% p.a. comparison rate)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.23% p.a. comparison rate)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.26% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.04% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest, Interest Only
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
Go to site -
Discounted Complete Package Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 40% min deposit
- Offset available
- Redraw available
- Interest rate
-
5.64
%
p.a.
Variable for 24 months and then 5.89% p.a.
- Comparison rate
-
6.18
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,883
- 100% offset account
- Make additional repayments at any time
- Get a fee-free credit card (T&Cs apply)
- interest rate
-
5.89% p.a. (6.18% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$375.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
-
$175.00
- Package
-
Complete Package
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$3,500,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
-
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Valuation and legal fees covered up to $1,000. Anything above this charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
Fee-free low-rate credit card.
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about First Option Bank home loans
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Home Loan
- Owner occupier
- Principal & Interest
- 40% min deposit
- Redraw available
- Interest rate
-
5.69
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.70
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,899
- Offset and non-offset options for flexible payments
- No application and monthly account keeping fees
- Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
- interest rate
-
5.69% p.a. (5.70% p.a. comparison rate)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$250.00
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$250.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$100,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$500.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
Valuation fee payable at cost
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Regional Australia Bank home loans
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Your selected home loans
* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards
Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.
While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.