Will the RBA hike the cash rate in October 2022? Westpac, CBA, ANZ, and NAB home loan predictions

With four months of 0.50% hikes behind us, many home loan borrowers dread another hefty rise in October. Previously, the Big Banks predicted a more temperate path for interest rates over summer of 0.25% apiece, but new forecasts suggest the heat is on.
Westpac, CBA, NAB, and ANZ rate predictions for October

Inflation has exceeded all expectations in 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pegs a peak of 7.75% in Q4, well above its target band of 2% - 3%. Predictions from Commonwealth Bank (7.25%) and NAB (7.5%) skew a little under, but still suggest the problem is nowhere near under control.
As such, the RBA is expected to push the official cash rate into ‘contractionary’ territory by lifting it beyond 2.60%. Currently, the cash rate sits at 2.35%, and the RBA hasn’t yet indicated what the final cash rate will be.
So either way you slice it, the Big Banks expect the RBA to move next month, whether it’s a standard 25 basis point hike or a supersized 50 bp one.
Dovish forecasts from CommBank and NAB place the final cash rate at 2.85% around November/December 2022. However, CommBank concedes there’s a risk of the RBA making another quarter-percentage movement for a final rate of 3.10% in 2023.
However, Westpac and ANZ fall into more hawkish territory. ANZ predicts the cash rate will peak at 3.35% in November 2022, while Westpac argues for 3.60% in February 2023. (The RBA doesn’t meet in January, so at least your post-Christmas budget will have a bit of a break).
Both eye-watering projections require a 0.50% jump in October, with more to follow, pulling up Australia’s floating rates like a rising tide.
Westpac, the bank forecasting the steepest rise, also announced 0.50% increases today to all its fixed-term offers, so regardless of where the hikes fall, the bank has priced its loan products as if the worst is to come.
Loan details
Repayment change if rates go up
What rising interest rates mean for Australians

The RBA made aggressive moves to the cash rate to squeeze inflation, but they’ve mostly squeezed borrowers instead. Falling house prices indicate a more buyer-hesitant property market, while complaints about the rising cost of living mean household belts have tightened.
Yet there’s also evidence we’re only just now seeing the effects of earlier RBA decisions, like a shock wave reaching us moments after the initial boom. Another 0.50% hike in October would add to the cumulative impact headed our way. If the RBA isn’t careful, economists warn there’s a real risk of overdoing it and plunging Australia into a recession.
The tension stretches with every move, so it’s essential to safeguard your finances and prepare for the rest of 2022’s rate hikes.
Get on top of the latest home loan news through our comparison hub. Looking to refinance or buy? Compare competitive interest rates using the table below.
Compare low interest rate home loans - last updated 3 December 2023
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Featured Product
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2023
Unloan Variable
Owner Occupier, Refinance Only, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment5.74% p.a. variable5.65% p.a.For refinancers only. Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply in as little as 10 minutes.
CompareCompareUnloan Variable
For refinancers only. Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply in as little as 10 minutes.
- interest rate
- 5.74% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.65% p.a.
- interest rate
- 5.74% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.65% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $0
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $0.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Unloan Unloan Variable
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Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Packaged Home Loan - 2023
Variable Rate Home Loan Special Offer
Package, Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, LVR<80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.14% p.a. variable6.51% p.a.Package benefits across Home Loans, Visa Credit Card, Personal Loans and Term Deposits. No package fee for the first year. No application, settlement or redraw fees to pay. Quick and easy application. Free CoreLogic RP Data property reports. *Terms, conditions and lending criteria apply.
CompareCompareVariable Rate Home Loan Special Offer
Package benefits across Home Loans, Visa Credit Card, Personal Loans and Term Deposits. No package fee for the first year. No application, settlement or redraw fees to pay. Quick and easy application. Free CoreLogic RP Data property reports. *Terms, conditions and lending criteria apply.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.51% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.51% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $0
- Ongoing fees
- $395.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
- $350.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- -
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- $0 package fee for the first year.
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Credit Union SA Variable Rate Home Loan Special Offer
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Offset Home Loan
Package, Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.14% p.a. variable6.39% p.a.Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
CompareCompareOffset Home Loan
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.39% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.39% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $350
- Ongoing fees
- $248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
- $400.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Macquarie Offset Home Loan
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Flex Home Loan
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.19% p.a. variable6.43% p.a.Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process.
CompareCompareFlex Home Loan
Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process.
- interest rate
- 6.19% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.43% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.19% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.43% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $250
- Ongoing fees
- $250.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
- $300.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- -
- maximum borrowing amount
- -
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the ubank Flex Home Loan
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Well Balanced Special Offer
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.12% p.a. variable6.14% p.a.Competitive low rates available for owner occupiers. Free online redraws. 100% offset account for a small fee ($10 p/mth). Quick and easy application online. Get a free evaluation (Valued up to $300). Minimum loan amount $100K.
CompareCompareWell Balanced Special Offer
Competitive low rates available for owner occupiers. Free online redraws. 100% offset account for a small fee ($10 p/mth). Quick and easy application online. Get a free evaluation (Valued up to $300). Minimum loan amount $100K.
- interest rate
- 6.12% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.14% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.12% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $785
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $300.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- Optional - $10 per month
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $200,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $2,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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