Capital gains in greater capital cities may provide opportunities for homebuyers

Inner cities have always been property hotbeds, marking impressive spikes in price in the last few years. But the “most mortgaged markets”, according to CoreLogic, now lie in the outskirts of Australia’s capitals – and value growth may make them more attractive for home buyers.

Property listings creeping up despite cold winter selling season

The latest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia may dampen home buyer spirits in time for the seasonal winter slowdown. Indeed, CoreLogic estimates roughly 350 basis points of the 400 bp increase to the official cash rate have now been passed along to home loan borrowers. 

“Using the example of a $750,000 mortgage, this takes monthly home loan repayments up by around $1,550 per month,” explains CoreLogic head of residential research, Eliza Owen.

“Additionally, the bulk of fixed-term home loans taken on during the pandemic are expiring this year, exposing more households to a spike in interest costs.”

For the most mortgaged markets in Australia – who tend to house low to middle-income families – this could be a significant cost burden to tackle. According to CoreLogic, 64% of the outer capital city regions had median household incomes lower than the capital city itself.

These regions have also seen minor upticks in sales volumes headed into winter, which is usually the coolest time for housing stock. Yet despite the increase in properties for sale and the high cost of financing a home loan, some of these regions have also shown remarkable capital gains, especially in Perth and Adelaide.

Capital growth in most mortgaged markets – CoreLogic (June 2023)

City
Region
% of owner-occupied mortgaged homes
Capital gains  in the last three months
Greater Sydney
Blacktown - North
55.5%
+4.6%
Greater Perth
Rockingham
47.6%
+4.0%
Greater Adelaide
Salisbury
40.5%
+3.9%
Greater Perth
Swan
54.2%
+3.3%
Greater Perth
Joondalup
45.6%
+3.1%
Greater Sydney
Wyong
34.1%
+2.8%
Greater Perth
Stirling
35.0%
+2.5%
Greater Adelaide
Onkaparinga
43.4%
+2.4%

Why is this significant? It could have implications for overall housing stability. 

If home loans get too expensive to afford, home loan hostages or mortgage prisoners may resort to what’s called a “forced” or “distressed” sale, where they sell their property to recoup their debts. 

If capital growth in these highly mortgaged areas holds steady or outpaces the national average, sellers can pay off their mortgage and then some, even with the capital gains tax

In fact, CoreLogic reports these indebted markets had overall capital gains of 3.1% since the start of the pandemic, compared to 1.0% for the rest of the country. 

However, with more properties hitting the market in these regions, distressed sellers may have trouble recouping their losses due to oversupply in the coming months. Owen says this could smother any recent progress in home values. 

Yet these regional markets still present an opportunity for buyers and investors where budget isn’t an issue, especially for those looking for something unique and out of the way.

“[Some] markets have had extraordinary capital gains since the onset of the pandemic, and since the [2021] Census snapshot,” explains Owen. 

In a time of volatile property prices, suburbs showing promise are always eye-catching. 

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Last updated 16 December 2024 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
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Your loan-to-value ratio (LVR): 50%

Loan amount and LVR will affect interest rates.

  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Promoted

    Variable Home Loan 90

    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.06 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.

  • Promoted

    Budget Home Loan

    • LVR <80%
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.07 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Enjoy a discounted variable home loan from IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Life-of-loan discount off IMB’s standard variable interest rate. Unrestricted additional repayments. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). No monthly fees to pay. Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.

  • Promoted

    Neat Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.

  • Promoted

    Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.89 % p.a.
    Fixed 1 year
    Comparison rate
    6.30 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,867
    Go to site

    Lock in a competitive fixed interest rate and enjoy peace of mind for the fixed period with SWS Bank’s Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan.There are no application, ongoing or banking fees to pay and first home buyers and refinancers can apply with a speedy online application. Get the flexibility of loan split options and redraw facility. No offset account available for fixed rate proportion of loan. Other fees may be applicable. T&Cs apply.

  • Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.89 % p.a.
    Fixed 1 year
    Comparison rate
    6.30 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,867
    Go to site

    Lock in a competitive fixed interest rate and enjoy peace of mind for the fixed period with SWS Bank’s Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan.There are no application, ongoing or banking fees to pay and first home buyers and refinancers can apply with a speedy online application. Get the flexibility of loan split options and redraw facility. No offset account available for fixed rate proportion of loan. Other fees may be applicable. T&Cs apply.

  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <95%
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.34 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site

    Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.

  • Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.79 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.27 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,931
    Go to site

    Competitive Fixed rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.06 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.

  • Budget Home Loan

    • LVR <80%
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.07 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Enjoy a discounted variable home loan from IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Life-of-loan discount off IMB’s standard variable interest rate. Unrestricted additional repayments. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). No monthly fees to pay. Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.

  • Neat Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.

  • Flex Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.33 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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