Will the RBA hike the cash rate in June 2023? CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac home loan predictions
![Collage of a man in the spotlight.](https://cdn.mozo.com.au/images/atwood/14917/GettyImages-1303781746%202.png)
We’re nearing the end of the tightening cycle – and home loan lenders know it. Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision sent shockwaves through an unprepared market. Mortgages jumped far more than the expected 25 basis points, while property prices remained surprisingly buoyant.
But despite the RBA’s reminder that official interest rates may have further to go, experts are in near-universal agreement with a hold in June.
So why is the RBA’s 6 June decision already decided? Let’s unpack the rate forecasts.
Will the RBA hold interest rates in June? Signs point to yes
![Collage of a woman sitting on a flat surface.](https://cdn.mozo.com.au/images/atwood/14917/GettyImages-1324679441%202.png)
Perhaps the strongest argument for the RBA to hold the cash rate steady in June is that no meaningful data has emerged suggesting it do otherwise. The central bank watches inflation indicators – especially the quarterly consumer and wage-price indices – with a hawkish eye. With no new information to go off of, the RBA may decide to wait and see.
“I don’t think the RBA will move again in June,” explains Mozo banking expert Peter Marshall. “It’s possible they will in July or August – in fact, it’s quite likely that in July or August, we’ll see another rate rise. There just hasn’t been any meaningful data released around employment, inflation, or things like that for the June meeting.
“The RBA’s probably at a point where they want to get more information about the increases they’ve added to rates this year. They will have to be aware that they’re at or very close to the peak of this rate cycle, and while they’ve said they expect rates will have to go up more, I think they’ll be getting ready to make the call that, ‘No, no more is needed.’”
Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ rate predictions for June 2023
![Collage of kids hanging off diverging arrows.](https://cdn.mozo.com.au/images/atwood/14917/GettyImages-1487055276%202.png)
Indeed, this pause forecast aligns with the views of Australia’s Big Four banks, who have spearheaded the debate ahead of each RBA meeting.
Commonwealth Bank believes we’re already at the cash rate peak – pending any surprisingly outrageous inflation data in July, which would justify a move in August. Till then, this would leave the cash rate at its current level: 3.85%.
However, the other three big banks – Westpac, NAB, and ANZ – lean higher.
Westpac and NAB predict a 4.10% peak in August, meaning the next (and last) hike we see for this cycle will be in two months' time.
ANZ skews the most hawkish, with a 4.35% cash rate peak in August. This could mean two more 25 basis point decisions in the next few months or one 50 bp hike in August. However, the latter scenario is highly unlikely, given the RBA’s preference to take baby steps rather than giant, market-shocking leaps.
Big Four Bank cash rate predictions – 2 June 2023
June | July | August | |
CBA | Nil | - | - |
Westpac | Nil | Nil | 4.10% |
NAB | Nil | Nil | 4.10% |
ANZ | Nil | 4.10% | 4.35% |
Of the four banks, only CBA correctly predicted last month’s RBA decision.
“The May rate rise surprised a lot of economists, but I thought the RBA probably did the right thing,” says Marshall.
“Easing off too soon would have sent the wrong message. People were basically ignoring where rates were now and getting on with borrowing lots of money. So the RBA is trying to reverse that, talk things down a bit – maybe that will have some effect. But I think they will be waiting to see at the moment.”
Pressure on landlords and renters mounts, but tax season could grant a reprieve
![Collage of one woman sitting above another on opposing blue towers.](https://cdn.mozo.com.au/images/atwood/14917/GettyImages-1324680465%202.png)
Refinancing has dulled from its March peak, but Australians still switched more than $19.3 billion worth of mortgages to a different lender in April – up 14.2% from a year ago.
For those not trapped with their home loan, finding a competitive rate has become a lifeline to the mounting pressure of 3.75% worth of RBA rate hikes.
Homeowners aren’t the only ones affected, however. Property investors have largely passed along the rate hikes to renters, creating some of the most eye-watering rental increases on record.
But while landlords can seek additional relief in rental property tax breaks, their tenants can’t, which makes the End of the Financial Year (EOFY) a critical time to save.
“July marks the commencement of a fresh chapter, allowing you to reimagine your financial management strategies,” says ubank’s Andrew Morrison.
“[Simple], yet impactful changes will save you from future headaches and ensure your financial success.”
These strategies include getting to know your tax bracket through the Australian Taxation Office website and carefully keeping track of your eligible deductions, maybe through a smart budgeting app. Whether buying a home, refinancing your mortgage, or coping as a renter, foresight and preparation are key to navigating the path of rate hikes.
Compare home loans below. For award-winning picks from 2023, check out our best home loans hub.
Home loan comparisons on Mozo
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5.90
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6.14
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6.16
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6.14
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6.16
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$350
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6.09
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6.11
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$3,027
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6.09
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6.11
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$250
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$0.00
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$300.00
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6.09
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6.13
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$3,027
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6.09
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6.13
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$595
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$0.00
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$250.00
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yes - fees apply
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5.69
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6.34
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$2,899
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5.69
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6.34
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$0
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$0.00
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no
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Unloan Variable
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5.99
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Variable
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5.90
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
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5.99
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5.90
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$0
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$0.00
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6.02
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$2,995
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5.99
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6.02
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$300
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$0.00
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$395.00
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5.99
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6.34
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$2,995
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5.99
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6.34
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
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$250
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$250.00 yearly
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$300.00
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6.01
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6.14
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p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
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$3,001
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- Interest rate
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6.01
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- Comparison rate
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6.14
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
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$134
- Ongoing fees
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$10.00 monthly
- Discharge fee
-
$350.00
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-
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yes
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Neat Home Loan
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- Interest rate
-
6.09
%
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- Comparison rate
-
6.11
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,027
Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.
- Interest rate
-
6.09
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.11
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$250
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$300.00
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yes - free
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-
yes - free
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-
no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
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- $80,000
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Special Real Deal Home Loan
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6.09
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- Comparison rate
-
6.13
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,027
Refinancers or first home buyers pay no monthly or annual fees. Up to $3,000 cashback when you complete your home loan application online. $2,000 cashback on loans ≥$250K; or $3,000 cashback on loans ≥$500K. LVR ≤80%. T&Cs and credit criteria apply.
- Interest rate
-
6.09
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.13
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$595
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$250.00
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yes - free
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yes - fees apply
- Offset account
-
no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- -
- Type of mortgage
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Basic Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<60%
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,043
Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$400.00
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Offset account
-
no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Variable
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- Principal & Interest
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Flex Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
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- LVR <60%
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.38
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,043
Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.38
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$250
- Ongoing fees
-
$250.00 yearly
- Discharge fee
-
$300.00
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Offset account
-
yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- -
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- -
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- Variable
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Offset Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<60%
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.39
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,043
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.39
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$248.00 yearly
- Discharge fee
-
$400.00
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Offset account
-
yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Variable
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- Principal & Interest
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- Owner Occupier
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- Monthly
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- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this Macquarie Offset Home Loan
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Basic Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR<70%
- Interest rate
-
6.25
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,079
No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- Interest rate
-
6.25
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$400.00
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Offset account
-
no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 70.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
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- Monthly
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- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this Macquarie Basic Home Loan
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Offset Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <70%
- Interest rate
-
6.25
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.42
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,079
- Interest rate
-
6.25
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.42
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$248.00 yearly
- Discharge fee
-
$400.00
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Offset account
-
yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 70.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this Macquarie Offset Home Loan
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Fixed Rate
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <80% LVR
- Interest rate
-
6.54
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
7.10
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,174
Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
- Interest rate
-
6.54
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
7.10
%
p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$160
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge fee
-
$160.00
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to to lesser of 5% of original fixed loan amount, or $5,000 each year
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Offset account
-
Optional - $10 per month - 1 year fixed term only
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- Minimum borrowing amount
- $20,000
- Maximum borrowing amount
- -
- Type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special offers
- $3,000 cashback for eligible First Home Buyers, $2,000 cashback when you refinance loans of $250k+, apply from 1 Dec 2022, settle within 180 days.
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about this ANZ Fixed Rate
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards
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