Will the RBA hike the cash rate in June 2023? CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac home loan predictions

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We’re nearing the end of the tightening cycle – and home loan lenders know it. Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision sent shockwaves through an unprepared market. Mortgages jumped far more than the expected 25 basis points, while property prices remained surprisingly buoyant.

But despite the RBA’s reminder that official interest rates may have further to go, experts are in near-universal agreement with a hold in June.

So why is the RBA’s 6 June decision already decided? Let’s unpack the rate forecasts.

Will the RBA hold interest rates in June? Signs point to yes

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Perhaps the strongest argument for the RBA to hold the cash rate steady in June is that no meaningful data has emerged suggesting it do otherwise. The central bank watches inflation indicators – especially the quarterly consumer and wage-price indices – with a hawkish eye. With no new information to go off of, the RBA may decide to wait and see.

“I don’t think the RBA will move again in June,” explains Mozo banking expert Peter Marshall. “It’s possible they will in July or August – in fact, it’s quite likely that in July or August, we’ll see another rate rise. There just hasn’t been any meaningful data released around employment, inflation, or things like that for the June meeting. 

“The RBA’s probably at a point where they want to get more information about the increases they’ve added to rates this year. They will have to be aware that they’re at or very close to the peak of this rate cycle, and while they’ve said they expect rates will have to go up more, I think they’ll be getting ready to make the call that, ‘No, no more is needed.’”

Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ rate predictions for June 2023

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Indeed, this pause forecast aligns with the views of Australia’s Big Four banks, who have spearheaded the debate ahead of each RBA meeting. 

Commonwealth Bank believes we’re already at the cash rate peak – pending any surprisingly outrageous inflation data in July, which would justify a move in August. Till then, this would leave the cash rate at its current level: 3.85%. 

However, the other three big banks – Westpac, NAB, and ANZ – lean higher. 

Westpac and NAB predict a 4.10% peak in August, meaning the next (and last) hike we see for this cycle will be in two months' time. 

ANZ skews the most hawkish, with a 4.35% cash rate peak in August. This could mean two more 25 basis point decisions in the next few months or one 50 bp hike in August. However, the latter scenario is highly unlikely, given the RBA’s preference to take baby steps rather than giant, market-shocking leaps.

Big Four Bank cash rate predictions – 2 June 2023

JuneJulyAugust
CBANil--
WestpacNilNil4.10%
NABNilNil4.10%
ANZNil4.10%4.35%

Of the four banks, only CBA correctly predicted last month’s RBA decision. 

“The May rate rise surprised a lot of economists, but I thought the RBA probably did the right thing,” says Marshall. 

“Easing off too soon would have sent the wrong message. People were basically ignoring where rates were now and getting on with borrowing lots of money. So the RBA is trying to reverse that, talk things down a bit – maybe that will have some effect. But I think they will be waiting to see at the moment.”

Pressure on landlords and renters mounts, but tax season could grant a reprieve

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Refinancing has dulled from its March peak, but Australians still switched more than $19.3 billion worth of mortgages to a different lender in April – up 14.2% from a year ago. 

For those not trapped with their home loan, finding a competitive rate has become a lifeline to the mounting pressure of 3.75% worth of RBA rate hikes.

Homeowners aren’t the only ones affected, however. Property investors have largely passed along the rate hikes to renters, creating some of the most eye-watering rental increases on record.

But while landlords can seek additional relief in rental property tax breaks, their tenants can’t, which makes the End of the Financial Year (EOFY) a critical time to save

“July marks the commencement of a fresh chapter, allowing you to reimagine your financial management strategies,” says ubank’s Andrew Morrison.

“[Simple], yet impactful changes will save you from future headaches and ensure your financial success.”

These strategies include getting to know your tax bracket through the Australian Taxation Office website and carefully keeping track of your eligible deductions, maybe through a smart budgeting app. Whether buying a home, refinancing your mortgage, or coping as a renter, foresight and preparation are key to navigating the path of rate hikes. 

Compare home loans below. For award-winning picks from 2023, check out our best home loans hub.

Home loan comparisons on Mozo

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Last updated 22 July 2024 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Neat Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.

  • Special Real Deal Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.13 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Refinancers or first home buyers pay no monthly or annual fees. Flexibility to choose your repayment schedule (weekly, fortnightly or monthly). Redraw facility available. Split your home loan into multiple loan accounts.

  • Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.34 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site

    Lock in a competitive interest rate and enjoy peace of mind for the fixed period. Available for owner occupied new and refinanced home loans with at least 20% deposit. Split option available as well as offset and redraw. Noapplication, ongoing or banking fees. Third Party fees may be applicable - payable within loan repayments. Extra repayments up to $20K per annum permitted. Apply online, 100% member owned credit union.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.34 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
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    Competitive Fixed rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.

  • Express Home Loan

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    Interest rate
    6.01 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,001
    Go to site

    Get online approval from the award-winning Bendigo Bank Express Home Loan. Multiple offset accounts and redraw available. 100% offset on variable rate loans and partial offset on fixed rate. Flexible repayment options. New home loans only.

  • Neat Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <60%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.11 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Competitively-priced variable rate loan. Ideal for owner occupiers and investors. No service fees to pay. Make free extra repayments and redraws. Flexible repayment schedule available.

  • Special Real Deal Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.13 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027
    Go to site

    Refinancers or first home buyers pay no monthly or annual fees. Flexibility to choose your repayment schedule (weekly, fortnightly or monthly). Redraw facility available. Split your home loan into multiple loan accounts.

  • Fixed Rate Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.15 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027

    Additional repayments of up to $10K per fixed year. Interest rate discounts available. Waiver of $499 application fee when combined with an Orange Advantage Home Loan.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
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    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Mortgage Simplifier

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    • Owner Occupier
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    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.17 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043

    Get a competitive variable rate with ING’s Mortgage Simplifier. Free extra repayments, no monthly or annual fees. Freedom to make free extra repayments or redraws.

  • Flex Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
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    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.38 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
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    Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.39 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Fixed
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    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    6.25 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.20 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,079
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    No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Fixed
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    Interest rate
    6.25 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.42 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,079
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  • Fixed Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    6.54 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    7.10 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,174

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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