Will the RBA hold the cash rate in March 2024? Home loan predictions from CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac

RBA Governor Michele Bullock addressing the media with the text 'Hike or Hold?' superimposed beside her

Last month the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.35% for the third consecutive Monetary Policy Decision. 

Mozo finance expert, Peter Marshall, says there’s a general consensus holding the cash rate in February was the right move and that previous rate hikes may have already succeeded in driving inflation down. 

“There’s general agreement that not moving in February was the right thing to do,” he said. 

“As things have panned out over the last few weeks, it’s becoming more apparent that the rate hikes they’ve already delivered may well be enough to do the job of getting inflation down. 

“There’s even a chance that might happen without too much excess unemployment and pain for people.”

So, will the next RBA meeting on 18-19 March 2024 make it the fourth consecutive hold, or are we in for something else?

Will the RBA hike, hold, or cut interest rates in March?

The consensus amongst the experts, including those at CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac, is that the RBA will hold again in March. 

Marshall agrees, adding that key economic indicators make a strong case for another hold. 

“They have not quite gotten the assurance that they’re looking for in achieving their targets, but there’s plenty of information coming through that suggests that key indicators, such as spending, borrowing, and employment are all showing that the rate hikes are making a difference. 

“So, I don't think they’ll be looking to hike again and they will definitely see it as too early to start cutting.” 

Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ rate predictions for March 2024

The Big Four Banks are all in agreement that the March meeting will deliver another hold, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. 

Big Four Bank cash rate predictions – 13 March 2024

Cash rate in March
ANZ
4.35%
CBA
4.35%
Westpac
4.35%
NAB
4.35%

When will interest rates come down?

Official interest rates will decrease when the RBA is convinced that inflation has returned to its target band of 2 to 3%. 

The latest annual CPI figure suggests headline inflation is at 4.1%. This is a sharper drop than the RBA predicted but still means we have a while to go. 

Predictions from the Big Four Banks on when interest rates will come down aren’t consistent. However, they typically point to September/December this year for the first cash rate cuts. 

It’s assumed the cash rate will be brought down to 2 to 3% sometime in 2025, but nothing in life (or economics) is guaranteed.  

When interest rates will come down – 14 March 2024

Jun 24
Sep 24
Dec 24
Mar 25
Jun 25
Sep 25
Dec 25
NAB
4.35%
4.35%
4.10%
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.10%
Westpac
4.35%
4.10%
3.85%
3.60%
3.35%
3.10%
3.10%
CBA
4.35%
4.10%
3.60%
3.10%
2.85%
2.85%
2.85%

While there’s a good chance home loan borrowers will have to wait it out for another few months before they see any rate relief, Marshall argues that the first cuts could come sooner than the end of the year. 

“I expect that we’ll see central banks in Europe and the United States moving more around the middle of the year,” he said. 

“While it may not be likely that the RBA will follow at that time, I think there’s a decent chance that they will. So, my money would be on sooner, rather than later.” 

Marshall says the things that are prompting the banks overseas to make these changes are occurring in a fairly similar way in Australia. 

“Inflation in other countries is coming down rapidly – there are signs it’s a little bit harder to shift in Australia, particularly with the housing issue.

“The RBA could be looking at what is going on with inflation in other countries and seeing that, well, Australia’s probably going to be coming down to that kind of level sooner or later, too.

“There are lots of different things going on, but at the moment Australia is pretty much moving in the same direction as those larger economic zones.”

Home buying in 2024: how do interest rate changes affect home buyers?

While home prices continue to balloon, affordability issues are compounded by rising interest rates. Here’s a look at how changing rates have blown up the average mortgage repayment spend:

What can borrowers do right now to ease the strain of home loan repayments? 

If you have a home loan and are looking for ways to get it down, your main options will be to refinance or use an offset account – or both. 

First off, you can compare home loans with the ultimate aim of refinancing.

Marshall says: “Have a look at what other rates might be available to you from either the lender that you’re with, or other lenders, and have a look at how much you could save by switching. 

“There are so many free mortgage repayment calculators around. Just hop onto one of those and put in the two different interest rates with the amount that you’ve got borrowed, and see how much you could save,” he said. 

While Marshall concedes refinancing can be a bit of a pain, it really comes down to how much work you’re prepared to put in to save money. 

A home loan with an offset account could also ease the burden of larger interest bills, according to Marshall. 

“If you’re not using an offset account at the moment and you regularly have some spare cash flowing through your household economy, it might be worth activating an offset account or seeing how much you can get one for, and making use of that. 

“Because every bit of money you’ve got sitting in there – even for weeks or a couple of months – will help reduce your interest bill.”


Compare home loans below. For award-winning picks from 2023, check out our best home loans hub.

Home loan comparisons on Mozo

Mozo may receive payment if you click the products below. We don’t compare the entire market, but you can search our database of 472 home loans.
Last updated 25 June 2024 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
  • Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.39 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Discount Variable Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.01 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    A low rate home loan for owner-occupiers packed with great features including unlimited extra repayments, free online redraw, no application or monthly admin fees. Rate will vary depending on LVR. Winner of a Mozo Experts Choice 2024 Low Cost Home Loan Award^

  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.06 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.

  • Fixed Rate Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    6.09 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.15 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,027

    Additional repayments of up to $10K per fixed year. Interest rate discounts available. Waiver of $499 application fee when combined with an Orange Advantage Home Loan.

  • The Better Home Loan Special Offer

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<80%
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a variable rate home loan with a bunch of features from Police Credit Union. Make extra repayments at any time without penalty. No monthly, annual or upfront fees. Free online redraw. Minimum 20% deposit. Qualifying criteria applies. Minimum loan amount is 200K. For new customers only. Mozo Experts Choice Home Lender Credit Union of the Year 2023.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

  • Mortgage Simplifier

    • LVR<80%
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.17 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043

    Get a competitive variable rate with ING’s Mortgage Simplifier. Free extra repayments, no monthly or annual fees. Freedom to make free extra repayments or redraws.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<60%
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    6.14 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.39 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,043
    Go to site

    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

  • Discount Great Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<80%
    • over $150k
    Interest rate
    6.19 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.21 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,059
    Go to site

    An easy to use Home Loan with no establishment fee and no monthly or annual fees. Minimum deposit of 20% is required. Mozo Experts Choice Awards - Investor Home Loan Award 2024^.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    6.25 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.20 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,079
    Go to site

    No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $750,000.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <70%
    Interest rate
    6.25 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    6.42 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,079
    Go to site

  • Fixed Rate

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • <80% LVR
    Interest rate
    6.59 % p.a.
    Fixed 3 years
    Comparison rate
    7.06 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,190

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

image of houses

Need help with refinancing?

You might have questions that need personal answers. We’ve teamed up with the mortgage brokers at Lendi to get you the answers you need, and a home loan deal you deserve.

Learn more

* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards

Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.

While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.