Will the RBA hold the cash rate in March 2024? Home loan predictions from CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac
Last month the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.35% for the third consecutive Monetary Policy Decision.
Mozo finance expert, Peter Marshall, says there’s a general consensus holding the cash rate in February was the right move and that previous rate hikes may have already succeeded in driving inflation down.
“There’s general agreement that not moving in February was the right thing to do,” he said.
“As things have panned out over the last few weeks, it’s becoming more apparent that the rate hikes they’ve already delivered may well be enough to do the job of getting inflation down.
“There’s even a chance that might happen without too much excess unemployment and pain for people.”
So, will the next RBA meeting on 18-19 March 2024 make it the fourth consecutive hold, or are we in for something else?
Will the RBA hike, hold, or cut interest rates in March?
The consensus amongst the experts, including those at CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac, is that the RBA will hold again in March.
Marshall agrees, adding that key economic indicators make a strong case for another hold.
“They have not quite gotten the assurance that they’re looking for in achieving their targets, but there’s plenty of information coming through that suggests that key indicators, such as spending, borrowing, and employment are all showing that the rate hikes are making a difference.
“So, I don't think they’ll be looking to hike again and they will definitely see it as too early to start cutting.”
Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ rate predictions for March 2024
The Big Four Banks are all in agreement that the March meeting will deliver another hold, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%.
Big Four Bank cash rate predictions – 13 March 2024
Cash rate in March | |
ANZ | 4.35% |
CBA | 4.35% |
Westpac | 4.35% |
NAB | 4.35% |
When will interest rates come down?
Official interest rates will decrease when the RBA is convinced that inflation has returned to its target band of 2 to 3%.
The latest annual CPI figure suggests headline inflation is at 4.1%. This is a sharper drop than the RBA predicted but still means we have a while to go.
Predictions from the Big Four Banks on when interest rates will come down aren’t consistent. However, they typically point to September/December this year for the first cash rate cuts.
It’s assumed the cash rate will be brought down to 2 to 3% sometime in 2025, but nothing in life (or economics) is guaranteed.
When interest rates will come down – 14 March 2024
Jun 24 |
Sep 24 |
Dec 24 |
Mar 25 |
Jun 25 |
Sep 25 |
Dec 25 |
|
NAB |
4.35% |
4.35% |
4.10% |
3.85% |
3.60% |
3.35% |
3.10% |
Westpac |
4.35% |
4.10% |
3.85% |
3.60% |
3.35% |
3.10% |
3.10% |
CBA |
4.35% |
4.10% |
3.60% |
3.10% |
2.85% |
2.85% |
2.85% |
While there’s a good chance home loan borrowers will have to wait it out for another few months before they see any rate relief, Marshall argues that the first cuts could come sooner than the end of the year.
“I expect that we’ll see central banks in Europe and the United States moving more around the middle of the year,” he said.
“While it may not be likely that the RBA will follow at that time, I think there’s a decent chance that they will. So, my money would be on sooner, rather than later.”
Marshall says the things that are prompting the banks overseas to make these changes are occurring in a fairly similar way in Australia.
“Inflation in other countries is coming down rapidly – there are signs it’s a little bit harder to shift in Australia, particularly with the housing issue.
“The RBA could be looking at what is going on with inflation in other countries and seeing that, well, Australia’s probably going to be coming down to that kind of level sooner or later, too.
“There are lots of different things going on, but at the moment Australia is pretty much moving in the same direction as those larger economic zones.”
Home buying in 2024: how do interest rate changes affect home buyers?
While home prices continue to balloon, affordability issues are compounded by rising interest rates. Here’s a look at how changing rates have blown up the average mortgage repayment spend:
What can borrowers do right now to ease the strain of home loan repayments?
If you have a home loan and are looking for ways to get it down, your main options will be to refinance or use an offset account – or both.
First off, you can compare home loans with the ultimate aim of refinancing.
Marshall says: “Have a look at what other rates might be available to you from either the lender that you’re with, or other lenders, and have a look at how much you could save by switching.
“There are so many free mortgage repayment calculators around. Just hop onto one of those and put in the two different interest rates with the amount that you’ve got borrowed, and see how much you could save,” he said.
While Marshall concedes refinancing can be a bit of a pain, it really comes down to how much work you’re prepared to put in to save money.
A home loan with an offset account could also ease the burden of larger interest bills, according to Marshall.
“If you’re not using an offset account at the moment and you regularly have some spare cash flowing through your household economy, it might be worth activating an offset account or seeing how much you can get one for, and making use of that.
“Because every bit of money you’ve got sitting in there – even for weeks or a couple of months – will help reduce your interest bill.”
Compare home loans below. For award-winning picks from 2023, check out our best home loans hub.
Home loan comparisons on Mozo
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5.69
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6.28
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2 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
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5.69
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5.97
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$2,899
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2 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.08% p.a.*)
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Fixed
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- Interest rate
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5.69
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Fixed 4 years
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6.23
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$2,899
Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Option to earn Qantas points. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
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1 year - 5.85% p.a. (6.36% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.30% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.26% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.23% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
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6.14% p.a.
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Fixed
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Fixed Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <95%
- Interest rate
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5.69
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
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6.28
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,899
Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.
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6.34% p.a.
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no
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yes
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Fixed Rate
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <80% LVR
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 3 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.81
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.14% p.a. (7.13% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.94% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.81% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.75% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.99% p.a. (6.69% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
7.24% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$160
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-
$0.00
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-
$160.00
- Package
-
-
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-
80.00%
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-
$20,000
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Fixed
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Principal & Interest
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-
Owner Occupier
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-
$2,915
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to to lesser of 5% of original fixed loan amount, or $5,000 each year
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-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
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-
- Offset account
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Optional - $10 per month - 1 year fixed term only
- Split account
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yes
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No monthly fee after end of fixed rate term. Lock your fixed rate for 90 days for a fee of $750 per $1m in lending (or part thereof).
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Unloan Variable
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <80%
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.90
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
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5.99% p.a. (5.90% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0
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-
$0.00
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-
$0.00
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- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
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Variable
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Owner Occupier
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-
$2,995
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no
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Budget Home Loan
- LVR <80%
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.04
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.07
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,011
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- interest rate
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6.04% p.a. (6.07% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$350
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-
$0.00
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$350.00
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- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
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$5,000,000
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Variable
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Principal & Interest
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-
$3,011
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-
yes - free
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yes - free
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-
$500.00
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-
no
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-
yes
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-
- Other benefits
-
The $449 application fee is waived for <80% LVR Owner Occupier Principal and Interest loans.
- Special Offers
-
$4,000 cashback for loans $750,000 and above with a maximum LVR of 80%, settled within 90 days of application for refinancers or 180 for purchase loans. $3,000 for loans between $500k and $749k, $2,000 for loans between $250k and $499k.
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Basic Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<60%
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,043
Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.14% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
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-
$400.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
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-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
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-
$3,043
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-
yes - free
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yes - free
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-
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no
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yes
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Mortgage Simplifier
- LVR<80%
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.17
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,043
Get a competitive variable rate with ING’s Mortgage Simplifier. Free extra repayments, no monthly or annual fees. Freedom to make free extra repayments or redraws.
- interest rate
-
6.14% p.a. (6.17% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$250.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
$3,043
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$1.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
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-
-
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Everyday round up available, a feature that automatically rounds purchases made on INGs Orange Everyday transaction account to the nearest $1 or $5 and transfers the difference against your loan balance.
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Offset Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<60%
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.14
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.39
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,043
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.14% p.a. (6.39% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
Package
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
$3,043
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
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-
-
- Other benefits
-
Waived annual fee for credit card added to the home loan.
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-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Macquarie home loans
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Elevate
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <80% LVR
- Interest rate
-
6.18
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.18
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,056
Get competitive rates on loan terms of 5 to 30 years with the Aussie Elevate Home Loan. Structure your loan with up to five splits. Make additional repayments (T&Cs apply). Offset accounts available. Unlimited redraw using your online banking account. Choose from weekly, fortnightly or monthly payments For loan amounts from $10,000 to $5 million.
- interest rate
-
6.18% p.a. (6.18% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$498
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$325.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
$3,056
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
Optional extra - $10 per month
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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