Is a recession on the cards? Here’s how homeowners prepare

The risk of a recession could be as high as 80% over 2023 and potentially 2024, according to internal Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) research released under a freedom of information request. 

The modelling, made in September 2022, found that the risk of a recession by September 2024 could be as high as 80%. The research found that if a recession were to occur, it would be over the course of the next four quarters with a 40% to 60% chance of a recession in September of 2023.

Whether the RBA can get inflation down to its 2-3% target without an economic contraction and/or mass unemployment remains to be seen. However, for homeowners, this could mean further interest rate hikes and more expensive home loans. 

So, the question is, what can homeowners do to protect themselves from further rate hikes and potential recession risks?

Recession-proofing measures home owners you can take

While no one can predict the exact timing or severity of a recession, if it happens at all, the grim predictions by the RBA research means that being prepared is important. 

  • Build an Emergency Fund: Establishing an emergency fund is crucial during uncertain times. Aim to save at least three to six months of living expenses. This fund can be a safety net in case of unexpected job loss or financial difficulties.
  • Reduce Debt: High levels of debt can be burdensome during a recession, especially on top of a mortgage. Prioritise paying off high-interest debt and consider debt consolidation so that, instead of paying multiple loans, you only have one loan to deal with. 
  • Refinance your home loan: Feel like your home loan isn’t as great as you want it to be? Refinancing your home loan is a great way to get a better deal for your mortgage. Maybe you feel like you can get a better rate, or are you looking for an account with an offset with it? Refinancing can let you get a loan with a provider that helps you through the tough times. 
  • Build up your offset account: If your mortgage has an offset account, it might be a good idea to start making regular deposits. Not only will it reduce the interest on your payments—which is even more important due to interest rate hikes—but you’ll also have a place to keep emergency funds.

Whether there is a recession or not, making sure you’ve got the home loan that’s right for you is important. At Mozo, we have comparisons on a bunch of refinancing home loan providers, so that you can get the mortgage that works well for you.

Mozo may receive payment if you click products on our site. We don’t compare the entire market, but you can compare more home loans here.
Last updated 15 February 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
What are your home loan needs?

Your loan-to-value ratio (LVR): 50%

Loan amount and LVR will affect interest rates.

  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

  • Promoted

    Offset Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <70%
    Interest rate
    5.55 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.28 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,855
    Go to site

    Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

  • Promoted

    Variable Home Loan 90

    • Principal and Interest
    • LVR <90%
    Interest rate
    6.04 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.08 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $3,011
    Go to site

    Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.

  • Basic Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR<70%
    Interest rate
    5.55 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.05 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,855
    Go to site

    No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Fixed
    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <70%
    Interest rate
    5.55 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.28 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,855
    Go to site

    Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.

  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • LVR <95%
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.20 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site

    Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.16 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site

    Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR<80%
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.21 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site

    Get repayment security with fixed rates from one to five years. Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period. Fix a portion of your loan and leave the rest variable. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly.

  • Everyday Home Loan

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.94 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,978
    Go to site

  • Unloan Variable

    • Owner Occupier
    • LVR <80%
    Interest rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.90 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,995
    Go to site

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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