Wait, why are house prices falling in Melbourne?

Property values tend to ebb and flow with market conditions. Home loan interest rates, average incomes, and buyer confidence can all change prices.
But while capital cities like Sydney and Brisbane have experienced remarkable price growth in the last year, Melbourne hasn’t. In fact, according to property watchdog CoreLogic, home values in Melbourne fell -0.9% in the three months to January 2024.
What’s going on?
Rental demand overpowers home buyers in Melbourne
Just because Melbourne house prices have been weaker than other capitals, doesn’t mean there isn’t a demand for housing, says CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen. It just depends on what type of housing you’re looking for.
Housing supply debates tend to focus on a national undersupply. Indeed, Housing Australia reports a shortfall of over 100,000 dwellings over the next four years.
However, high listings and cool buyer demand in Melbourne suggest that the southern capital city faces oversupply. So do home buyers have more power than we thought?
Yes and no. Home buyers, or owner-occupiers, have more choices in Melbourne right now – therefore, they have an easier time negotiating prices. However, renters face a steep uphill battle.
Rental prices in Melbourne surged over +10% in 2023, and vacancy rates fell to less than 1%. Melbourne is also catching a significant chunk of incoming migrants flooding to Australia. Now, the average rent for a Melbourne house is $550, says PropTrack.
So it seems that while not everyone is in a position to buy a house, more than enough Melbournites are searching for a place to live.
The rental market is key to becoming a home buyer
These insights into Melbourne’s strange property market support the long-held theory that a strong rental market is great for home buyers. Anyone who doesn’t want to (or can’t) buy property will naturally fall back to renting.
In the case of Melbourne, this data just means that while purchasing demand is low, housing demand is high. Home loans may be off the table for many Australians, but they still need an affordable living situation. And with rents showing no signs of slowing, that makes housing increasingly harder to afford – whether you’re just a renter or trying to save for that crucial home loan deposit.
There is a strange silver lining. Owen suggests that strong overall housing demand will be good news for the property market when interest rates come down.
Australians clearly want places to live; home buyer demand is just slow because affordability has been squeezed by high mortgage rates. When interest rates drop, it could let lower-income buyers into the Melbourne property market and steady the falling prices.
Compare low rate home loans in the table below.
-
Promoted
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2024
Unloan Variable
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <80%
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.90
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
- interest rate
-
5.99% p.a. (5.90% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
Rate discounted by 0.01% p.a. every year up to a maximum discount of 0.30% p.a..
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Unloan home loans
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Promoted
Basic Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR<70%
- Interest rate
-
5.55
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.05
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,855
No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.12% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.05% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.00% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.00% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (5.97% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Macquarie home loans
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Promoted
Variable Home Loan 90
- Principal and Interest
- LVR <90%
- Interest rate
-
6.04
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.08
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,011
Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.04% p.a. (6.08% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$530
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Offset sub-account available for additional +0.10%. $300 discharge fee and $250 discharge documentation fee applicable if loan doesnt go to full term.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about loans.com.au home loans
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OMG Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <60% LVR
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.02
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
BCU Bank’s OMG owner occupied home loan offers a variety of great low rates depending on your deposit. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Access your extra payments when you need to through the redraw facility. Pre-approval valid for 3 months.
- interest rate
-
5.99% p.a. (6.02% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
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Promoted
Offset Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <70%
- Interest rate
-
5.55
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.28
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,855
Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.28% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.22% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.23% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
Package
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Macquarie home loans
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Promoted
Basic Variable Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <60%
- Interest rate
-
6.13
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,040
Competitive interest rate. No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees. You can redraw your repayments if you’re ahead. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly. Make extra payments without penalty, to pay off your home loan even faster.
- interest rate
-
6.13% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
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Promoted
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2024
- Investor Fixed Home Loan - 2024
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.49% p.a. (6.28% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.29% p.a. (6.27% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.37% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.23% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Additional repayments allowed up to $25,000 during the fixed period.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
Go to site -
Promoted
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<80%
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.21
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Get repayment security with fixed rates from one to five years. Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period. Fix a portion of your loan and leave the rest variable. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.54% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.21% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.39% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.39% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.41% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.29% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest, Interest Only
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
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Promoted
Intro Discounted Standard Variable Rate
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
Variable for 12 months and then 6.60% p.a.
- Comparison rate
-
6.56
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,191
Enjoy a discount of 0.40% p.a. applied for the first 12 months of the loan. No application, account or establishment fees to pay to help pay. Make additional repayments without being penalised. Other fees may apply. 20% deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.60% p.a. (6.56% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
-
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$100,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,500,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$1.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and exit fee at cost. Valuation fee charged at cost, starting from $132.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about SWSbank home loans
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Fixed Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <95%
- Interest rate
-
5.69
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,899
Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.19% p.a. (6.30% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.19% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.17% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.24% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$799
- Ongoing fees
-
$6.00 monthly
- Discharge Fee
-
$350.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to 1 year in advance
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$500.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Monthly fee only applies to fixed period of loan.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
$4,000 cashback for loans $750,000 and above with a maximum LVR of 80%, settled within 90 days of application for refinancers or 180 for purchase loans. $3,000 for loans between $500k and $749k, $2,000 for loans between $250k and $499k.
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Your selected home loans
* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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