Wait, why are house prices falling in Melbourne?

Woman holding up question dialogue because she wants to know why house prices in Melbourne are falling

Property values tend to ebb and flow with market conditions. Home loan interest rates, average incomes, and buyer confidence can all change prices. 

But while capital cities like Sydney and Brisbane have experienced remarkable price growth in the last year, Melbourne hasn’t. In fact, according to property watchdog CoreLogic, home values in Melbourne fell -0.9% in the three months to January 2024. 

What’s going on?

Rental demand overpowers home buyers in Melbourne

Just because Melbourne house prices have been weaker than other capitals, doesn’t mean there isn’t a demand for housing, says CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen. It just depends on what type of housing you’re looking for.

Housing supply debates tend to focus on a national undersupply. Indeed, Housing Australia reports a shortfall of over 100,000 dwellings over the next four years.

However, high listings and cool buyer demand in Melbourne suggest that the southern capital city faces oversupply. So do home buyers have more power than we thought?

Yes and no. Home buyers, or owner-occupiers, have more choices in Melbourne right now – therefore, they have an easier time negotiating prices. However, renters face a steep uphill battle. 

Rental prices in Melbourne surged over +10% in 2023, and vacancy rates fell to less than 1%. Melbourne is also catching a significant chunk of incoming migrants flooding to Australia. Now, the average rent for a Melbourne house is $550, says PropTrack.

So it seems that while not everyone is in a position to buy a house, more than enough Melbournites are searching for a place to live. 

The rental market is key to becoming a home buyer

These insights into Melbourne’s strange property market support the long-held theory that a strong rental market is great for home buyers. Anyone who doesn’t want to (or can’t) buy property will naturally fall back to renting. 

In the case of Melbourne, this data just means that while purchasing demand is low, housing demand is high. Home loans may be off the table for many Australians, but they still need an affordable living situation. And with rents showing no signs of slowing, that makes housing increasingly harder to afford – whether you’re just a renter or trying to save for that crucial home loan deposit

There is a strange silver lining. Owen suggests that strong overall housing demand will be good news for the property market when interest rates come down

Australians clearly want places to live; home buyer demand is just slow because affordability has been squeezed by high mortgage rates. When interest rates drop, it could let lower-income buyers into the Melbourne property market and steady the falling prices. 

Compare low rate home loans in the table below.

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Last updated 14 August 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
What are your home loan needs?
Loan purpose
Buying or Refinancing
  • Promoted

    Discount Fixed Rate

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    4.89 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.62 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,651
    Go to site
    • $2,000 cashback for new loans (T&Cs apply)
    • Up to $10,000 extra repayments annually
    • One free residential valuation per application
  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.24 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.15 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,758
    Go to site
    • RATE CUT NOW LIVE!
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
  • Promoted

    Lite Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.56 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Earn Virgin Money Points every month
    • No ongoing home loan fees
    • Make additional repayments and redraw at no extra cost
  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.67 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.
  • Promoted

    Basic Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.63 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.65 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,880
    Go to site
    • $3,000 cashback when refinancing $700k+ (T&Cs apply)
    • Unlimited free redraw and extra repayments
    • No account-keeping or monthly fees
  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.72 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Discount Fixed Rate

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    4.89 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.62 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,651
    Go to site
    • $2,000 cashback for new loans (T&Cs apply)
    • Up to $10,000 extra repayments annually
    • One free residential valuation per application
  • Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    4.99 % p.a.
    Fixed 1 year
    Comparison rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,681
    Go to site
    • No application, establishment or monthly fees
    • Make extra repayments up to $20,000 per year
    • Free redraw facility to access additional funds
  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.09 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,712
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties
    • Split loan available
  • Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.24 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.15 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,758
    Go to site
    • RATE CUT NOW LIVE!
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.67 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.
  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.72 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Discount Great Rate Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.50 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Get up to $3,000 cashback when you apply online (T&Cs apply)
    • No paperwork or payslips required (see site for details)
    • Low variable rate
  • OMG Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.52 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
  • Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.53 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.86 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,848
    Go to site
    • Multiple offset accounts available
    • Free extra repayments
    • Easy redraw facility
  • Lite Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.56 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Earn Virgin Money Points every month
    • No ongoing home loan fees
    • Make additional repayments and redraw at no extra cost
  • Budget Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.57 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Split loan available
  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.58 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • loans.com.au Home Loans has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 26 August
    • No monthly or ongoing fees
    • Option to add an offset for 0.10% p.a.
  • Everyday Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Access unlimited free redraw on extra repayments
    • No monthly account keeping fees
    • Option to split your loan (fee applies)
  • Loaded Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.88 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,867
    Go to site
    • Earn Virgin Money Points at settlement and every month
    • 100% interest offset
    • Weekly, fortnightly or monthly repayment flexibility
Showing 15 results from 405 home loans. Use the filters to see more

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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