Wait, why are house prices falling in Melbourne?

By Evlin DuBose · · 2 min read
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Woman holding up question dialogue because she wants to know why house prices in Melbourne are falling

Property values tend to ebb and flow with market conditions. Home loan interest rates, average incomes, and buyer confidence can all change prices. 

But while capital cities like Sydney and Brisbane have experienced remarkable price growth in the last year, Melbourne hasn’t. In fact, according to property watchdog CoreLogic, home values in Melbourne fell -0.9% in the three months to January 2024. 

What’s going on?

Rental demand overpowers home buyers in Melbourne

Just because Melbourne house prices have been weaker than other capitals, doesn’t mean there isn’t a demand for housing, says CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen. It just depends on what type of housing you’re looking for.

Housing supply debates tend to focus on a national undersupply. Indeed, Housing Australia reports a shortfall of over 100,000 dwellings over the next four years.

However, high listings and cool buyer demand in Melbourne suggest that the southern capital city faces oversupply. So do home buyers have more power than we thought?

Yes and no. Home buyers, or owner-occupiers, have more choices in Melbourne right now – therefore, they have an easier time negotiating prices. However, renters face a steep uphill battle. 

Rental prices in Melbourne surged over +10% in 2023, and vacancy rates fell to less than 1%. Melbourne is also catching a significant chunk of incoming migrants flooding to Australia. Now, the average rent for a Melbourne house is $550, says PropTrack.

So it seems that while not everyone is in a position to buy a house, more than enough Melbournites are searching for a place to live. 

The rental market is key to becoming a home buyer

These insights into Melbourne’s strange property market support the long-held theory that a strong rental market is great for home buyers. Anyone who doesn’t want to (or can’t) buy property will naturally fall back to renting. 

In the case of Melbourne, this data just means that while purchasing demand is low, housing demand is high. Home loans may be off the table for many Australians, but they still need an affordable living situation. And with rents showing no signs of slowing, that makes housing increasingly harder to afford – whether you’re just a renter or trying to save for that crucial home loan deposit. 

There is a strange silver lining. Owen suggests that strong overall housing demand will be good news for the property market when interest rates come down. 

Australians clearly want places to live; home buyer demand is just slow because affordability has been squeezed by high mortgage rates. When interest rates drop, it could let lower-income buyers into the Melbourne property market and steady the falling prices. 

Compare low rate home loans in the table below.

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Last updated 5 December 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
What are your home loan needs?
Loan purpose
Buying or Refinancing
  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.19 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.10 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,742
    Go to site
    • The first home loan with an automatic loyalty discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
    • Built by CommBank

  • First Home Buyer Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    • For first home buyers
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    4.99 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.04 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,681
    Go to site
    • Competitive interest rate – 4.99% p.a. (comparison rate* 5.04% p.a.)
    • Offset account to reduce interest and save on repayments
    • No establishment or monthly fees, plus valuation fees waived up to $1,000 (limited time)

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.09 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.43 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,712
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.

  • Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.19 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.10 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,742
    Go to site
    • The first home loan with an automatic loyalty discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
    • Built by CommBank

  • Discount Great Rate Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.19 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.20 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,742
    Go to site
    • Get up to $3,000 cashback when you apply online (T&Cs apply)
    • No paperwork or payslips required (see site for details)
    • Low variable rate

  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.33 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • No monthly or ongoing fees
    • Option to add an offset for 0.10% p.a.

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.39 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.42 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,805
    Go to site
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees to pay.
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
Showing 6 results from 380 home loans. Use the filters to see more

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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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