Mozo Spring Property Preview 2024: What’s in store for home buyers?

As the winter cool subsides, the property market comes into sharper focus, and much of the interest comes from more selling! The reason for this is typically an uptick in property listings.

Comparing new listings to recent sales can be a good way for would-be buyers to research the market as we head into spring. In short, areas with more sales than new listings are considered ‘seller’s’ markets, while those areas with a higher number of new listings, generally favour the buyer.

Spring is upon us, so let’s take a closer look!

(If you'd rather research home loans first, jump over to our home loans hub page).

Where are property listings at the start of spring?

Now listings have cooled a bit lately but if we go by trend data, new listings usually pick up in spring. 

Consider a few of Corelogic’s average uplift percentages on new listings in spring over the past decade:

• Sydney new listings up 20%
• Melbourne news listings up 27%
• Adelaide new listings up 28%
• Hobart new listings up 28%.

In each of these cities, listings have significantly outpaced sales (on average), which means they’ve been good markets for buyers come the warmer air. Even if you currently see fewer ‘for sale’ signs in your area, expect things to ramp up a bit in September. 

Homes for sale have been in short supply

Nationally in the three months to July, there was an estimated 124,500 sales against 123,000 new listings added to the market for sale, Corelogic reports. For the time being this suggests a higher level of buyers than sellers nationally, with demand outpacing supply.

But keep in mind that this isn’t the case everywhere - each city or area is different. 

For example, the biggest discrepancies between sales and new listings are currently in Melbourne, where there were 5,400 more new listings added to the market in the past three months than sales taking place, as per Corelogic.

Meanwhile, Adelaide and Perth have been on the other end of the spectrum, where sales have vastly outpaced the number of new listings added in recent months.

So taking this data altogether, the thinking might be that on the one hand Melbourne buyers could be in a good spot in September, while in Perth and Adelaide it’s sellers who are heading into spring in a strong position.

Property auctions are coming back

In addition to listings, auctions have picked up around the country. 

Saturdays in spring have long been the preferred time to sell because the weather is nice, gardens are in bloom and generally buyers are in the mood to get out and about. 

The lift in auction numbers in late August is proof of this. The combined capitals auction clearance rate nudged a little higher last week (to 26 August), reaching 71.4%, the highest early clearance rate since the last week of July, says Corelogic.  

According to its late August report, Corelogic says the volume of capital city auctions has indeed been rising, with 2,052 homes going under the hammer the prior week. And although the number of auctions is down from the same time last year (2,278), it’s clear that auction activity is warming up as we leave winter behind.

Sydney and Melbourne homes in focus again

Sydney and Melbourne are the two cities a lot of buyers typically have an eye on, and this can be everyone from investors to those looking to snap up their first home - or those doing both by rent-vesting.

Both of these major auction markets are revving up, with Melbourne hosting 937 auctions for a preliminary clearance rate of 62% in the week ending 26 August, as per Corelogic.

You might be wondering what these numbers tell us. Well, consider that in early August there were just 641 auctions reported in Melbourne with a 57% clearance rate, as per Domain numbers. So there are clearly many more homes being taken to auction across the city now, and yet buyer activity isn’t yet in full swing. 

In the same way, Sydney’s numbers have been steadily climbing over August. The city hosted 807 auctions with a preliminary clearance rate of 67%, in the week to August 26. This bodes well for would-be buyers with initiative to get into the early spring season ahead of bigger crowds.

The smaller auction markets remain consistent, with Adelaide leading the clearance rate ladder at 79.5%, followed by Brisbane at 61% and Canberra at 54%, all of which have fewer auctions but also quite a few homes that have gone unsold in recent weeks.

So what’s likely to happen with property in spring 2024?

The general mood in the economy hasn’t helped the property market of late. 

Inflation, while down, has persisted and consumer costs remain high. Interest rates have also held at the same level for some time, which means mortgages have generally become more expensive than they were during the pandemic.

Those looking for a home loan would be best to shop around because there of course better rates than the current rate averages:

• Variable rate home loans (owner-occupied, P&I) - 6.80% p.a. 
• Fixed rate home loans (owner, 5 year term) - 6.48% p.a.

(Figures from the Mozo database, based on a loan size of $400,000 at 80% LVR, as at 30 August, 2024).

For those poised for home buying action this spring, there is once again reason for optimism. An increase in the number of homes listed for sale is always a welcome sight for buyers, especially after a lot of the economic doom and gloom of late. 

And sellers needing to move on from their current property typically test the market at this time of year, so the number of opportunities should generally increase as the weeks go on. 

While some cities might not have quite enough stock to satisfy buyer demand, there is a sense among experts, including PropTrack's senior economist Eleanor Creagh, that spring will be busy .

Home loan and real estate market homework

As a starting point you might want to check out Mozo’s Expert Choice Award home loan winners. Our experts have crunched the numbers on 475 home loans to make the task of finding a good deal easier. 

Once you’ve done your homework on home loans and rates, it’s time to get a read on the market - so what can be expected after a typically quiet winter? 

Remember, there is no single market. It’s silly to throw a blanket over the whole real estate scene in this way. Each city is different as we can see by the numbers, and for those with some experience buying property, you’ll know that no two suburbs are alike. 

In fact, sometimes hopping one suburb over can make all the difference. When the auction crowd focuses on one hotspot, a hidden gem might go unnoticed in the next. It all comes down to demand in a given area. So research and preparation are key. 

Here’s a quick checklist to help with research:

• Do some home loan calculations based on local prices.
• Find out what’s for sale but also what type of properties are in demand.
• Get to know the suburbs you're interested in.
• Keep an eye on auctions but don’t forget private sales.

Bottom line: Honing in on a home

For those looking at more modest accommodations, keep in mind there are areas in Sydney and Melbourne where a good supply of units have actually seen prices drop, as reported by the REA Group recently. 

Some of these areas in Sydney include Parramatta, St George and Olympic Park, while in Melbourne you might have a look at Albion, Carlton and Dandenong, as per Domain’s research in July. 

In other areas, supply is really constrained and that will create some competition, as Domain has suggested in its reporting. 

In the end, knowing your local area, where the peaks and troughs are, how prices are differing on various types of homes, and how many people are looking, could prove all the difference at one of the busiest times of year. 

If you’re preparing for the spring property season and need a home loan, be sure to compare some of the top home loans in the Mozo database below. Happy house hunting!