Mozo Money Moves: Budget recap, RBA rate cut unlikely, lower personal loans, and rising mortgage stress

Welcome to Mozo Money Moves, your go-to weekly finance wrap, unpacking the latest shifts in Australia’s financial landscape.

This week we examine the chances of a rate cut at next week’s RBA meeting and break down the pre-election budget and the consumer savings it’s spruiking. 

We explain what a ‘Trumpcession’ might look like for Aussie consumers, on the back of increasing mortgage stress among home loan borrowers. However, there’s potential for a busy April homebuying market and an uptick in refinancing activity across Australia. 

The 2025 Mozo Experts Choice Awards winners for banking have been announced. Plus, there’s been some personal loan rate reductions among the Big Four banks and we list the leading term deposit rates available this week.

Positive economic indicators, but no rate cut expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its second cash rate call of 2025 next week on Tuesday, April 1. While there have been a few constructive data releases in the lead up to this decision, it’s unlikely we’ll see back-to-back rate cuts.

In February, inflation eased slightly, with the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.4% over the year, down from 2.5% in January. Meanwhile, the jobless rate held steady at 4.1%, even as 53,000 jobs were shed.

While the latest data has ignited some fresh debate about the justification for another cut, the Australian Securities Exchange’s (ASX) RBA Rate Indicator currently has market expectations of an interest rate reduction pegged at just 8%. Additionally, analysts at all of the Big Four banks predict that Australia’s central bank will hold rates in April. 

CBA, NAB and Westpac economists expect rates to go down again in May, while ANZ thinks there will only be one more cut in August.

You can use Mozo’s interest rate tracker to see which banks are passing on rate cuts.

Pre-election budget breakdown

The 2025/26 Australian Federal Budget was released this week. We posed five critical questions, aimed at providing a clearer picture of how the budget impacts both the economy and your wallet. You can read the full article for all the answers and explanations.

Mozo senior writer Jasmine Gearie provided readers with a full budget recap, outlining significant investment into healthcare, cost of living relief and an additional $17 billion worth of tax cuts – equal to about $5 a week in 2026-27, rising to $10 a week in 2027-28.

Here are a few key takeaways:

• A tax cut for all Australian taxpayers

• An extra 18 million bulk billed GP visits every year

• A $150 energy bill discount for every household

• Medicines under the PBS capped at $25

• Income caps increased for the Help to Buy scheme

We also took a look at what some of Australia’s leading financial institutions and industry commentators had to say about the budget, cost-of-living, energy, wages, tax cuts and more.

Stay tuned to Mozo’s live blog for more information, updates and commentary pertaining to the budget, next week’s cash rate decision and any subsequent interest rate changes.

Refinancing picks up as borrowers chase better deals

The first cut to official interest rates in four years prompted more home loan borrowers to refinance their mortgages, with the latest figures from digital property exchange platform PEXA showing a notable increase in refinancing activity across Australia.

PEXA – which handles all refinancing deals for Aussie properties – reported an 8.4% rise in refinancing across Australia’s mainland states in February 2025, compared to the same month last year. 

While refinancing remains below the record highs seen in 2023, it is still well above pre-pandemic averages.

States' refinancing growth (February '25 vs February '24):

PEXA chief economist Julie Toth said the increase in refinancing activity reflected how quickly borrowers responded to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to lower the cash rate to 4.1%. She noted that Australian consumers had become increasingly proactive in seeking out cheaper home loan rates, reacting swiftly to changes in interest rates.

While mortgage competition has eased since its peak in 2023 – when banks competed aggressively for borrowers exiting COVID-era fixed-rate loans – analysts see early signs of competition increasing again. Recent pricing moves from major banks, including Westpac and ANZ, suggest lenders are beginning to adjust their rates to attract new customers.

CBA’s expands eligibility for Digi Home Loan

Commbank (CBA) is now offering its lowest rate variable mortgage to new and existing borrowers and refinancers, with some restrictions. The Digi Home Loan (owner occupied) was previously only available to external refinancers. 

As of publication, the home loan boasts an interest rate of 5.90% p.a. (comparison rate* 6.03% p.a.). However, both new borrowers and refinancers will need a loan-to-value ratio of 60% or less (with discount margin offer) to score this rate. New borrowings must be at least $100,000.

The max LVR is 80% with a rate only 4 basis points higher at 5.94% p.a. (comparison rate* 6.07% p.a.). Or for investors, 6.21% p.a. (comparison rate* 6.34% p.a.).

*WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

Big Four personal loan rate reductions

Earlier this week, CommBank and NAB cut their personal loan rates, providing some relief for borrowers. Here’s what’s changed:

CommBank trimmed unsecured personal loan rates by 0.25% p.a.

• New fixed rates range: 7.75% p.a. to 19.75% p.a. (comparison rate^ 9.15% p.a. to 21.05% p.a.)
• New variable rates range: 8.25% p.a. to 20.25% p.a. (comparison rate^ 9.64% p.a. to 21.55% p.a.)

NAB slashed unsecured personal loan rates by 1.00% p.a.

• New fixed and variable rates range: 7.49% p.a. to 20.49% p.a. (comparison rate^ 8.53% p.a. to 21.38% p.a.)

NAB's significant cut means it's now offering one of the lowest starting rates for unsecured personal loans among the Big Four banks. For comparison, average rates on Mozo’s database are 10.15% p.a. for unsecured personal loans.

^WARNING: This comparison rate is true only for the examples given and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. The comparison rates displayed are calculated based on a loan of $30,000 for a term of 5 years  based on monthly principal and interest repayments.

Mortgage stress on the rise

Earlier in the week, Mozo managing editor JP Pelosi explored the latest Roy Morgan research, noting that nearly a third (29%) of mortgage holders were ‘at risk’ of suffering mortgage stress – the third straight monthly increase since October 2024.

While still below the 2008 peak of 36%, the number of borrowers considered ‘extremely at risk’ hit 1,043,000 (19%) in January 2025, well above the 10-year average of 15%.

NAB defines mortgage stress as when home loan repayments push finances to the limit.

What’s driving the rise?

Mortgage stress has climbed since May 2022, when the RBA kicked off 13 straight rate hikes. The cash rate peaked at 4.35% in late 2023 before dropping to 4.10% in February – the first cut in over four years.

Will rate cuts ease the pressure?

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says a 0.25% RBA cut in April (to 3.85%) could lower mortgage stress. This would see numbers drop by 86,000 to 1,547,000 (27.4%). More cuts could follow if inflation stays within the 2-3% target range.

April property market set for activity despite holidays

With Easter, school holidays, and ANZAC Day falling in the same week, sellers are debating whether to list now or wait. While holiday periods typically slow market activity, real estate agency Raine & Horne suggest serious buyers remain engaged. Vendors may also benefit from fewer new listings, tightening supply.

Key market trends

Mozo managing editor JP Pelosi broke down CoreLogic’s latest data in our live blog, revealing new property listings across major cities are 5% lower than a year ago. Total advertised stock sits 8% below the five-year average, signalling high demand amid short supply.

Open-home inspections surged after the RBA’s February rate cut:

• Victoria: +41%
• NSW: +31%
• Northern Territory: +21%
• Tasmania: +17%
• South Australia: +10%
• Western Australia: +6%

Even accounting for the typical holiday slowdown, strong buyer demand and recent home loan rate cuts suggest we could see solid market activity in April. If you’re thinking of buying, get ahead of the crowd – search and filter home loans comparisons for competitive rates.

What would a 'Trumpcession' look like in Australia?

'Trumpcession' sounds like just another silly mashed-up term but it refers to a potential worldwide economic downturn linked to US president Donald Trump’s infamous trade tariffs.

What might the flow-on effect be for Australian consumers? Senior money writer Peter Terlato unpacks the circumstances surrounding a potential global trade war and outlines a few of the major consequences.

Higher prices: If tariffs expand beyond steel and aluminium, Aussie companies importing American goods – like cars, electronics, or agricultural products – might pass on extra costs.

Jobs uncertainty: If Australian exporters struggle to compete due to tariffs, industries like mining and manufacturing could see job losses.

Market volatility: Uncertainty around US trade policies can shake global markets, potentially impacting superannuation balances and investment portfolios.

Stronger Australian dollar: If trade tensions weaken the US dollar, it could make overseas travel cheaper for Aussies but also reduce demand for Australian exports.

You can read the full ‘Trumpcession’ article for more information.

Mozo Experts Choice Awards 2025: banking winners

If you're reviewing the ways in which you manage your money, the latest Mozo Experts Choice Awards highlight savings accounts, term deposits, and everyday accounts worth considering.

Super savings accounts 🏆

Best ongoing savings accounts with leading rates and best accounts with unconditional terms.

High-interest savings accounts:

• Winners: AMP Bank, Great Southern Bank, ING, ME, MOVE Bank, Rabobank, RACQ Bank, Ubank, Virgin Money

No strings savings accounts:

• Winners: Australian Unity, Bank of Queensland, G&C Mutual Bank, Goldfields Money, Macquarie, and Unity Bank

Top term deposit providers 💰

Analysed 78 term deposit accounts for top rates across short, medium & long terms:

• Winners: AMP Bank, Bank Australia, Bank of Sydney, G&C Mutual Bank, Heartland Bank, Illawarra Credit Union, ING, Judo Bank, MOVE Bank, Qudos Bank, Rabobank

Exceptional everyday accounts 🏦

Largely fee-free banking + free overseas transactions, rewards, or cashback:

• Winners: AMP Bank, Australian Military Bank, Bankwest, BOQ Specialist, Commonwealth Bank, Great Southern Bank, HSBC, ING, Macquarie, ME, Suncorp Bank, Ubank, Up

This presents a great opportunity to boost your savings, reduce fees, and simplify banking.

Still time to lock in leading term deposits 

While other providers, including major banks like Commbank and Westpac, have been slashing term deposit interest returns, the Bank of Sydney just sweetened its 6-month online only term deposit rate by 0.15% p.a. – increasing from 4.70% p.a. to a very generous 4.85% p.a.

It's now the third highest rate on Mozo’s database for a 6-month deposit, just behind Judo Bank (4.90% p.a.) and Heartland Bank (4.89% p.a.).

The average 6-month term deposit rate on Mozo’s database is 4.25% p.a., meaning Bank of Sydney’s offer may be a rewarding option if you’re looking for somewhere to park some of your savings right now.

If you're seeking a sensible way to invest and grow your savings, but want to balance higher returns with flexible access to your funds, ‘term deposit laddering’ could be a strategy that works for you.

Compare the leading rates on Mozo’s database for different term deposit durations:

6-month term deposits

9-month term deposits

1 year term deposits