Over a million Aussie homeowners at risk of facing mortgage stress, finds Roy Morgan

By Evlin DuBose · · 2 min read
Fact Checked
Advertiser disclosure
Collage of a woman looking over the edge.

New research from Roy Morgan reveals that if the Reserve Bank of Australia hikes rates again in December, it could put a quarter (25.1%) of home loan borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

More Australians may fall behind in the RBA’s war against inflation

Collage of a man plummeting down a red chasm.

By January 2023, over 1.1 million Australian households may have to put anywhere between 25% to 40% of their after-tax incomes towards their mortgage repayments, finds Roy Morgan.

More worryingly, nearly 14.4% of mortgage borrowers are considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ as of October 2022 – the highest level since pre-pandemic. 

The research seemingly corroborates what has been felt at the domestic level since official interest rates first began to climb in May 2022. 

Property prices have plummeted in a chillier housing market, and even the RBA governor has apologised for making misleading and incorrect predictions about the path of rate hikes. 

But with inflation at a thirty-year high, the RBA has prioritised tackling price growth over a decline in real wages – at the expense of homeowners. Rising interest rates may therefore threaten to push more borrowers into the mortgage trap, which has the worrying potential to spark a recession and undo all the RBA’s efforts. It’s a risky gamble.

But does a surge in at-risk mortgage holders mean imminent doom? Not necessarily, explains Roy Morgan chief executive, Michele Levine.

High employment rates hold off recession – for now

Collage of a woman holding up a falling red arrow.

Levine points to employment as a more critical bellwether of distress, since the loss of income hurts far more than rising interest rates. So long as employment levels remain strong, she says, we likely won’t face the spiral of at-risk holdings and mortgage defaults that defined the Global Financial Crisis in 2007 - 2009. 

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show a near-record 13.5 million Australians were employed in October 2022,” continues Levine, up from even pre-pandemic levels, so there is room for optimism.

However, Roy Morgan admits its mortgage risk figures are ‘conservative’, and unemployment has already shown tiny upticks since October.

“Other influences such as increasing inflation, interest rates, and supply chain challenges caused by extreme weather events are set to be key factors driving employment outcomes during the upcoming year,” concludes Levine. 

In the meantime, it falls to homeowners to manage their repayments and the RBA to chart the best path forward.

Why does the RBA do what they do? Learn more in our monetary policy guide. Compare home loans on offer below.

Last updated 24 May 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
What are your home loan needs?
Loan purpose
Buying or Refinancing
  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.40 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • RATE CUT NOW LIVE!
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
  • Promoted

    Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.78 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.82 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,927
    Go to site
    • NRMA Home Loans has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 6 June
    • $0 application fee to pay
    • Apply in as little as 15 minutes
  • Promoted

    Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.70 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site
    • Regional Australia Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 4 June
    • No application and monthly account keeping fees
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
  • Promoted

    Fixed Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.81 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site
    • $0 application fee to pay
    • Additional repayments up to $20,000/year
    • Apply in as little as 15 minutes

  • Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.40 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • RATE CUT NOW LIVE!
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.91 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.

  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.96 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options

  • Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.70 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site
    • Regional Australia Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 4 June
    • No application and monthly account keeping fees
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)

  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.69 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.00 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,899
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties
    • Split loan available

  • OMG Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.77 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site
    • BCU Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 10 June
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months

  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.74 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.81 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,915
    Go to site
    • $0 application fee to pay
    • Additional repayments up to $20,000/year
    • Apply in as little as 15 minutes

  • Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.78 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.82 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,927
    Go to site
    • NRMA Home Loans has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 6 June
    • $0 application fee to pay
    • Apply in as little as 15 minutes

  • Budget Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.79 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.82 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,931
    Go to site
    • IMB Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 30 May
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Split loan available

  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.79 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.83 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,931
    Go to site
    • No monthly or ongoing fees
    • Option to add an offset for 0.10% p.a.

  • Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.79 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    6.07 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,931
    Go to site
    • Multiple offset accounts available
    • Free extra repayments
    • Easy redraw facility

  • Neat Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.84 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.86 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,947
    Go to site
    • ubank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 29 May
    • Easy redraw facility
    • No annual fee to pay

  • Flex Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.84 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    6.08 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,947
    Go to site
    • ubank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 29 May
    • Free extra repayments
    • Multiple offset accounts available

  • Home Loan with Offset

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.88 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.89 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,959
    Go to site
    • Regional Australia Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 4 June
    • No application and monthly account keeping fees
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)

  • Basic Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.88 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.91 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,959
    Go to site
    • P&N Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 10 June
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options

  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.89 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.92 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,962
    Go to site
    • BCU Bank has confirmed a rate cut of 0.25% p.a. effective 10 June
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees to pay.
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
Showing 16 results from 415 home loans. Use the filters to see more

Want free expert advice on your home loan?

Looking to buy or refinance? Book a free appointment with an Aussie broker and get expert help. PLUS go in the draw to win a share of $320K!

Learn more

* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards

Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.

While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.

Compare home loans