Over a million Aussie homeowners at risk of facing mortgage stress, finds Roy Morgan

New research from Roy Morgan reveals that if the Reserve Bank of Australia hikes rates again in December, it could put a quarter (25.1%) of home loan borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.
More Australians may fall behind in the RBA’s war against inflation

By January 2023, over 1.1 million Australian households may have to put anywhere between 25% to 40% of their after-tax incomes towards their mortgage repayments, finds Roy Morgan.
More worryingly, nearly 14.4% of mortgage borrowers are considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ as of October 2022 – the highest level since pre-pandemic.
The research seemingly corroborates what has been felt at the domestic level since official interest rates first began to climb in May 2022.
Property prices have plummeted in a chillier housing market, and even the RBA governor has apologised for making misleading and incorrect predictions about the path of rate hikes.
But with inflation at a thirty-year high, the RBA has prioritised tackling price growth over a decline in real wages – at the expense of homeowners. Rising interest rates may therefore threaten to push more borrowers into the mortgage trap, which has the worrying potential to spark a recession and undo all the RBA’s efforts. It’s a risky gamble.
But does a surge in at-risk mortgage holders mean imminent doom? Not necessarily, explains Roy Morgan chief executive, Michele Levine.
High employment rates hold off recession – for now

Levine points to employment as a more critical bellwether of distress, since the loss of income hurts far more than rising interest rates. So long as employment levels remain strong, she says, we likely won’t face the spiral of at-risk holdings and mortgage defaults that defined the Global Financial Crisis in 2007 - 2009.
“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show a near-record 13.5 million Australians were employed in October 2022,” continues Levine, up from even pre-pandemic levels, so there is room for optimism.
However, Roy Morgan admits its mortgage risk figures are ‘conservative’, and unemployment has already shown tiny upticks since October.
“Other influences such as increasing inflation, interest rates, and supply chain challenges caused by extreme weather events are set to be key factors driving employment outcomes during the upcoming year,” concludes Levine.
In the meantime, it falls to homeowners to manage their repayments and the RBA to chart the best path forward.
Why does the RBA do what they do? Learn more in our monetary policy guide. Compare home loans on offer below.
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- Low Cost Home Loan - 2024
Unloan Variable
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <80%
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.90
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
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5.99% p.a. (5.90% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
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n/a
- Upfront fees
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$0
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$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
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-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
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80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
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$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
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$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
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Variable
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Principal & Interest
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Owner Occupier
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Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
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-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
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no
- Split account
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no
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-
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Basic Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR<70%
- Interest rate
-
5.55
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.05
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,855
No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.12% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.05% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.00% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.00% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (5.97% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
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Principal & Interest
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Owner Occupier
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Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
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no
- Split account
-
yes
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-
-
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-
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-
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Variable Home Loan 90
- Principal and Interest
- LVR <90%
- Interest rate
-
6.04
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.08
%
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- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,011
Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.04% p.a. (6.08% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$530
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Offset sub-account available for additional +0.10%. $300 discharge fee and $250 discharge documentation fee applicable if loan doesnt go to full term.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
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-
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OMG Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <60% LVR
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.02
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
BCU Bank’s OMG owner occupied home loan offers a variety of great low rates depending on your deposit. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Access your extra payments when you need to through the redraw facility. Pre-approval valid for 3 months.
- interest rate
-
5.99% p.a. (6.02% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
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-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
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-
yes
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-
-
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-
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Offset Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <70%
- Interest rate
-
5.55
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.28
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,855
Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- interest rate
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1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.28% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.22% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.23% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
Package
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
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Principal & Interest
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-
Owner Occupier
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-
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-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
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-
yes
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-
yes
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-
-
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-
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Basic Variable Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <60%
- Interest rate
-
6.13
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,040
Competitive interest rate. No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees. You can redraw your repayments if you’re ahead. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly. Make extra payments without penalty, to pay off your home loan even faster.
- interest rate
-
6.13% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$300
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-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
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-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
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-
-
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-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
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- Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2024
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Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.49% p.a. (6.28% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.29% p.a. (6.27% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.37% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.23% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
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-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
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-
Additional repayments allowed up to $25,000 during the fixed period.
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-
-
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-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
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Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<80%
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.21
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Get repayment security with fixed rates from one to five years. Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period. Fix a portion of your loan and leave the rest variable. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.54% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.21% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.39% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.39% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.41% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.29% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest, Interest Only
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
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Intro Discounted Standard Variable Rate
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
Variable for 12 months and then 6.60% p.a.
- Comparison rate
-
6.56
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,191
Enjoy a discount of 0.40% p.a. applied for the first 12 months of the loan. No application, account or establishment fees to pay to help pay. Make additional repayments without being penalised. Other fees may apply. 20% deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.60% p.a. (6.56% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
-
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$100,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,500,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$1.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and exit fee at cost. Valuation fee charged at cost, starting from $132.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
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Fixed Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <95%
- Interest rate
-
5.69
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,899
Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.19% p.a. (6.30% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.19% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.17% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.24% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$799
- Ongoing fees
-
$6.00 monthly
- Discharge Fee
-
$350.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to 1 year in advance
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$500.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Monthly fee only applies to fixed period of loan.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
$4,000 cashback for loans $750,000 and above with a maximum LVR of 80%, settled within 90 days of application for refinancers or 180 for purchase loans. $3,000 for loans between $500k and $749k, $2,000 for loans between $250k and $499k.
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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