Over a million Aussie homeowners at risk of facing mortgage stress, finds Roy Morgan

Collage of a woman looking over the edge.

New research from Roy Morgan reveals that if the Reserve Bank of Australia hikes rates again in December, it could put a quarter (25.1%) of home loan borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

More Australians may fall behind in the RBA’s war against inflation

Collage of a man plummeting down a red chasm.

By January 2023, over 1.1 million Australian households may have to put anywhere between 25% to 40% of their after-tax incomes towards their mortgage repayments, finds Roy Morgan.

More worryingly, nearly 14.4% of mortgage borrowers are considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ as of October 2022 – the highest level since pre-pandemic. 

The research seemingly corroborates what has been felt at the domestic level since official interest rates first began to climb in May 2022. 

Property prices have plummeted in a chillier housing market, and even the RBA governor has apologised for making misleading and incorrect predictions about the path of rate hikes. 

But with inflation at a thirty-year high, the RBA has prioritised tackling price growth over a decline in real wages – at the expense of homeowners. Rising interest rates may therefore threaten to push more borrowers into the mortgage trap, which has the worrying potential to spark a recession and undo all the RBA’s efforts. It’s a risky gamble.

But does a surge in at-risk mortgage holders mean imminent doom? Not necessarily, explains Roy Morgan chief executive, Michele Levine.

High employment rates hold off recession – for now

Collage of a woman holding up a falling red arrow.

Levine points to employment as a more critical bellwether of distress, since the loss of income hurts far more than rising interest rates. So long as employment levels remain strong, she says, we likely won’t face the spiral of at-risk holdings and mortgage defaults that defined the Global Financial Crisis in 2007 - 2009. 

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show a near-record 13.5 million Australians were employed in October 2022,” continues Levine, up from even pre-pandemic levels, so there is room for optimism.

However, Roy Morgan admits its mortgage risk figures are ‘conservative’, and unemployment has already shown tiny upticks since October.

“Other influences such as increasing inflation, interest rates, and supply chain challenges caused by extreme weather events are set to be key factors driving employment outcomes during the upcoming year,” concludes Levine. 

In the meantime, it falls to homeowners to manage their repayments and the RBA to chart the best path forward.

Why does the RBA do what they do? Learn more in our monetary policy guide. Compare home loans on offer below.

Last updated 20 July 2025 Important disclosures and comparison rate warning*
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  • Promoted

    Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.40 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
    • Built by CommBank
  • Promoted

    Everyday Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Access unlimited free redraw on extra repayments
    • No monthly account keeping fees
    • Option to split your loan (fee applies)
  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.77 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.
  • Promoted

    Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.76 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Optimum Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    4.99 % p.a.
    Fixed 1 year
    Comparison rate
    5.99 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,681
    Go to site
    • No application, establishment or monthly fees
    • Make extra repayments up to $20,000 per year
    • Free redraw facility to access additional funds
  • 2-Year Discounted Simple Home Loan Variable

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Refinance only
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.24 % p.a.
    Variable for 24 months and then 5.49% p.a.
    Comparison rate
    5.45 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,758
    Go to site
    • 2-year discounted variable rate offer for owner-occupiers
    • No application or ongoing fees and up to $1,000 towards legal and valuation costs (T&Cs apply)
    • Make unlimited extra repayments and access free redraw anytime
  • Fixed Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.29 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.72 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,773
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties
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  • Unloan Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.40 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • The first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply)
    • No application or banking fees
    • Built by CommBank
  • Discount Great Rate Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.50 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Get up to $3,000 cashback when you apply online (T&Cs apply)
    • No paperwork or payslips required (see site for details)
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  • OMG Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.52 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.76 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period.
    • Split loan available
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Fixed Rate Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 5% min deposit
    Interest rate
    5.49 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.77 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,836
    Go to site
    • No ongoing annual fees
    • Make up to $25,000 extra repayments during a fixed period, fee free (T&Cs apply)
    • Lock in for up to 5 years.
  • Flex Home Loan

    • Fixed rate
    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.53 % p.a.
    Fixed 2 years
    Comparison rate
    5.86 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,848
    Go to site
    • Multiple offset accounts available
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  • Budget Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    • Cashback
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.57 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply)
    • Split loan available
  • Variable Home Loan 90

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 10% min deposit
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    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.58 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • No monthly or ongoing fees
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  • Everyday Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • Interest only
    • 20% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.54 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.59 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,852
    Go to site
    • Access unlimited free redraw on extra repayments
    • No monthly account keeping fees
    • Option to split your loan (fee applies)
  • Basic Variable Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.63 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.66 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,880
    Go to site
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees
    • Weekly, fortnightly, or monthly repayment options
  • Neat Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.64 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.66 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,883
    Go to site
    • Free extra repayments
    • Easy redraw facility
    • No annual fee to pay
  • Offset Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.64 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.67 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,883
    Go to site
    • No ongoing monthly loan maintenance fees to pay.
    • Pre-approval valid for 3 months
  • Flex Home Loan

    • Owner occupier
    • Principal & Interest
    • 40% min deposit
    • Offset available
    • Redraw available
    Interest rate
    5.64 % p.a.
    Variable
    Comparison rate
    5.89 % p.a.
    Initial monthly repayment
    $2,883
    Go to site
    • Multiple offset accounts available
    • Free extra repayments
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

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