Which big banks have been right about RBA rate hikes?

Which Big Four Banks – CommBank, Westpac, NAB, or ANZ – have correctly called cash rate movements over the past year? And what could this tell us about rising interest rates in 2023?
With ten Reserve Bank rate hikes under our belts, let’s take stock.
The path of cash rate hikes in 2022 - 2023

Here we stand. This time last year, a 3.60% cash rate would’ve been unthinkable. Aside from the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a stance that rates wouldn’t lift until 2024, inflation had only just started to take off. ‘Cost of living’ wasn’t a buzzy term.
Yet when inflation soared well above the 2 - 3% target band set by the RBA, Australia’s monetary policy needed an adjustment. Thus, the RBA deployed its primary tool to level out the economy: cash rate movements.
The first rate rise in May 2022 clocked in at 25 basis points and signalled the end of a historically low era. The rhetoric at the time was that pandemic economic stimulus measures (i.e. a 0.10% cash rate) were no longer needed, as the Australian economy had proven remarkably resilient. RBA governor Philip Lowe stressed that any rate rises were simply ‘returning things to normal’.
However, as inflation skyrocketed and the cost of living crushed Aussie budgets, it soon became apparent stronger intervention was needed. The RBA followed up its first 25 bp move with four Herculean 50 bp jumps from June to September – taking everyone by surprise. Such large moves were highly unusual for the central bank and indicated a strong, restrictive signal.
In October, when the effects of rate hikes had caught up with most mortgage repayments, the RBA pivoted to a more conservative stance, delivering a series of 25 bp hikes from October 2022 to March 2023 (except January, when the central bank doesn’t meet).
This took the cash rate from ‘neutral’ to ‘contractionary’ territory. Rate hikes were no longer about returning us to baseline: they were meant to rein us in.
As a result, mortgage stress has mounted; borrowers report having to dig into savings to afford the extra interest on their variable home loans. Even renters haven’t been spared, as CoreLogic reports rents shot up 10.2% in 2022 – thanks partly to landlords foisting interest increases on tenants.
#RateHikes and inflation also affect renters, not just homeowners, partially because landlords pass along their added mortgage costs 🏡 📈
— mozo.com.au (@mozo_au) February 26, 2023
Let's look at some of the latest data from @corelogicau pic.twitter.com/hesacY0JBw
Philip Lowe has reiterated in multiple statements that inflation is a more dangerous enemy than ballooning mortgage costs, arguing that inflation worsens economic inequality and makes it harder for ordinary people* to get by.
Despite this, growing calls for a halt to hikes have become harder to ignore. New Mozo research found that 1 in 5 borrowers already couldn’t afford another rate rise in 2023, of which there have been two.
*Lowe earned over $1 million in remuneration for his work as RBA governor in 2022. The rest of the nine-member RBA board in charge of cash rate decisions is staffed by millionaires, business leaders, PhDs, and titans of industry. According to the RBA, the average Australian earns $69,000 a year.
Big bank cash rate predictions: who was right? CBA, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac

Looking back across our nine prediction articles, it’s clear that not every call made by a big bank has been entirely accurate. However, they have been a relatively reliable bellwether for the overall direction of interest rates.
Firstly, the big banks have continually revised how high they think rates will go. Early calls from Westpac back in June 2022 put the terminal cash rate at 2.60% in early 2023. Now, Westpac thinks it’ll be 4.10% in May 2023.
CBA had even warned us as recently as February that a cash rate above 3.35% could induce a per capita recession. Now, the big bank reckons the final rate will be 3.85% in April.
Secondly, for individual rate movements (either 25 or 50 bp), the big four banks have been split into two camps. CBA and NAB have typically been more dovish, usually opting for 25 bp predictions made at a gradual pace, while Westpac and ANZ have pushed for hawkish and aggressive hikes, advocating for a higher final rate and 50 bp super-shocks.
Here’s a breakdown of the big bank predictions from the last six RBA decisions, compared to what the RBA actually decided.
How often were the big four right about the RBA? Six-month snapshot
Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | Dec 2022 | Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | |
CBA | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
NAB | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
ANZ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
Westpac | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
RBA move (bp) | 50 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
For the last three RBA meetings, all four big banks have correctly called it. Only CBA and NAB have gotten it right for the last six meetings entirely. ANZ missed in October, while Westpac overshot its guesses twice (forecasting 50 bp moves instead of 25 bp ones).
However, it should also be noted that Westpac was one of the largest proponents of the first massive 50 bp hike in June – though at the time, it predicted the RBA would only move 40 bp.
For posterity (and nostalgia), here’s a compilation of all our prediction articles for this tightening cycle so far.
- June 2022 RBA predictions
- July 2022 RBA predictions
- August 2022 RBA predictions
- September 2022 RBA predictions
- October 2022 RBA predictions
- November 2022 RBA predictions
- December 2022 RBA predictions
- February 2023 RBA predictions
- March 2023 RBA predictions
Why big bank attitudes to RBA rate hikes matter

Besides employing some of Australia’s leading economists, CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ combined make up the vast majority of Australia’s banking services, catering to an estimated 80% of Aussies.
Each big bank also makes up the bulk of all home loan lending in Australia, either directly or by financing smaller lenders. The majority of home loans in Australia use variable interest rates, making them sensitive to the cash rate – and between May 2022 and February 2023, each big bank passed along the RBA rate hike to borrowers in full.
Fortunately, while they may be thought leaders, the big banks are hardly rate leaders in the Mozo database. You can compare the big four with smaller lenders with our rate check hub, or browse low-interest home loans below if you’re seeking to refinance.
Compare low interest rate home loans below.
-
Promoted
OMG Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- <60% LVR
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.02
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
BCU Bank’s OMG owner occupied home loan offers a variety of great low rates depending on your deposit. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Access your extra payments when you need to through the redraw facility. Pre-approval valid for 3 months.
- interest rate
-
5.99% p.a. (6.02% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
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yes
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-
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-
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- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
Unloan Variable Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <80%
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.90
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
Unloan has confirmed they will decrease rates by 0.25% p.a. effective 21 February 2025. Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
- interest rate
-
5.99% p.a. (5.90% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
Rate automatically discounted by 0.01% p.a. every year up to a maximum discount of 0.30% p.a..
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Unloan home loans
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- First Home Buyer Loan - 2025
Variable Home Loan 90
- Principal and Interest
- LVR <90%
- Interest rate
-
6.04
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
6.08
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$3,011
Loans.com.au has confirmed they will decrease rates by 0.25% p.a. effective 4 March 2025. Affordable home loan rate for buyers or refinancers. No monthly or ongoing fees. Option to add an offset for 0.10%. Access to savings with unlimited redraws available. Minimum 10% deposit required.
- interest rate
-
6.04% p.a. (6.08% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$530
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$50,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$2,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$0.00
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Offset sub-account available for additional +0.10%. $300 discharge fee and $250 discharge documentation fee applicable if loan doesnt go to full term.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about loans.com.au home loans
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-
Basic Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR<70%
- Interest rate
-
5.55
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.05
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,855
No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.12% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.05% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.00% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.00% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (5.97% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Macquarie home loans
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Offset Home Loan
- Fixed
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <70%
- Interest rate
-
5.55
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.28
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,855
Convenient offset account. No upfront or ongoing fees. Free extra repayments and redraw facility. Fast approval times. Min 30% deposit required. Borrow up to $10,000,000.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 5.69% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.28% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.55% p.a. (6.22% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.23% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$350
- Ongoing fees
-
$248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
-
$400.00
- Package
-
Package
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - up to $10,000 p.a.
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
yes
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Macquarie home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- LVR <95%
- Interest rate
-
5.69
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.20
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,899
Get the security of a competitive fixed rate home loan for 2 years with IMB. Get up to $4,000 cashback (T&Cs apply). Up to 12 months repayments in advance without penalties. Free Internet and Mobile Banking redraws (T&Cs apply). Up to a 30 year loan term. Split loan available. No offset account.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.19% p.a. (6.30% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.20% p.a.*)
3 years - 5.69% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
4 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.19% p.a.*)
5 years - 5.89% p.a. (6.17% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.24% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$799
- Ongoing fees
-
$6.00 monthly
- Discharge Fee
-
$350.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to 1 year in advance
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$500.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Monthly fee only applies to fixed period of loan.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
$4,000 cashback for loans $750,000 and above with a maximum LVR of 80%, settled within 90 days of application for refinancers or 180 for purchase loans. $3,000 for loans between $500k and $749k, $2,000 for loans between $250k and $499k.
Read reviews and learn more about IMB Bank home loans
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Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- Principal & Interest
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.16
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.49% p.a. (6.28% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.16% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.29% p.a. (6.27% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.37% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.23% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$5,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Additional repayments allowed up to $25,000 during the fixed period.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about BCU Bank home loans
Go to site -
Fixed Rate Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR<80%
- Interest rate
-
5.74
%
p.a.
Fixed 2 years
- Comparison rate
-
6.21
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,915
Get repayment security with fixed rates from one to five years. Free extra repayments of up to $25,000 during the fixed rate period. Fix a portion of your loan and leave the rest variable. Choose to repay weekly, fortnightly, or monthly.
- interest rate
-
1 year - 6.54% p.a. (6.34% p.a.*)
2 years - 5.74% p.a. (6.21% p.a.*)
3 years - 6.39% p.a. (6.35% p.a.*)
4 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.39% p.a.*)
5 years - 6.49% p.a. (6.41% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
6.29% p.a.
- Upfront fees
-
$300
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$395.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
-
- type of mortgage
-
Fixed
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest, Interest Only
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free up to $25,000 during fixed period
- Redraw facility
-
no
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
Legal and valuation fees charged at cost.
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about P&N Bank home loans
Go to site -
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
- Investor Home Loan - 2025
Everyday Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <80%
- Interest rate
-
5.94
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,978
- interest rate
-
5.94% p.a. (5.99% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$600
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$350.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$100,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$3,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest, Interest Only
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
$1.00
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
yes
- Other restrictions
-
To be eligible for this rate, a salary credit of $1500 a month must be deposited into a MOVE Bank transaction account. Interest Only monthly repayment available for construction only for a maximum of 12 months
- Other benefits
-
-
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about MOVE Bank home loans
Go to site -
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2025
Unloan Variable Home Loan
- Owner Occupier
- LVR <80%
- Interest rate
-
5.99
%
p.a.
Variable
- Comparison rate
-
5.90
%
p.a.
- Initial monthly repayment
-
$2,995
Unloan has confirmed they will decrease rates by 0.25% p.a. effective 21 February 2025. Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
- interest rate
-
5.99% p.a. (5.90% p.a.*)
- Fixed loan revert rate
-
n/a
- Upfront fees
-
$0
- Ongoing fees
-
$0.00
- Discharge Fee
-
$0.00
- Package
-
-
- Maximum loan to value ratio
-
80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
-
$10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
-
$10,000,000
- type of mortgage
-
Variable
- Repayment types
-
Principal & Interest
- Availability
-
Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
-
Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Extra repayments
-
yes - free
- Redraw facility
-
yes - free
- Minimum redraw amount
-
-
- Offset account
-
no
- Split account
-
no
- Other restrictions
-
-
- Other benefits
-
Rate automatically discounted by 0.01% p.a. every year up to a maximum discount of 0.30% p.a..
- Special Offers
-
-
Read reviews and learn more about Unloan home loans
Go to site
Your selected home loans
* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards
Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.
While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.