Money Moves: Bold rate cut predictions, ASX gets pummelled, NAB lowers fixed rate home loans, and term deposits slashed

Welcome to Mozo Money Moves, your go-to weekly finance wrap, unpacking the latest shifts in Australia’s financial landscape.

This week, rate cut speculation ramped up as NAB broke ranks with a bold prediction: a 50 basis point cut as soon as May. Meanwhile, mortgage buffers are being reconsidered and term deposit rates are getting smashed – potentially signalling a faster than expected easing cycle.

NAB also announced big cuts to its fixed home loan rates ahead of May's cash rate meeting.

We’ve also seen recession fears creep into the market, with the ASX taking a big hit and economists raising concerns about the global impact of the United States’ tariffs strategy.

Despite a small rise in consumer confidence, cost-of-living pain remains widespread. And while refinancing activity shows signs of picking up, many Aussies could be missing out on better savings habits. We’ve outlined five common mistakes that could be costing you.

Also this week, Westpac joined the federal government’s energy efficiency ratings trial, and the winners of the 2025 Mozo Experts Choice Online Share Trading Awards have been revealed.

Here’s what made money news this week.

NAB tips 50bps rate cut next month

Is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) about to cut deeper – and sooner – than expected?

We mentioned the possibility of a more proactive monetary policy in Mozo’s live blog on Monday, reporting on the latest economic polling figures showing a shift in sentiment.

Now, NAB has forecast a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in May, which would slash the cash rate to 3.60%. That’s a sharp departure from its earlier call for a single 25bps cut in August.

The bank cited weakening domestic demand and cooling inflation as reasons the RBA may move more aggressively to avoid a recession. If NAB is right, this would mark the first oversized rate cut (50 bps) since May 2012.

The ASX RBA Rate Indicator – a reflection of what the futures market is pricing in – has pegged a 77% chance of a 75 basis point rate cut at the RBA’s May meeting, as of Wednesday April 9.

However, the indicator isn’t suggesting the RBA is planning anything so drastic. It's simply a snapshot of the current market mood and sentiment, translated into numbers.

Since 2015, 90% of all rate cuts have been 25 basis points, even during the pandemic.

“While a rate cut in May is certainly a possibility, especially if the RBA is concerned about the  growth or a weakening labour market, a 50bps ‘supersized’ cut would be out of step with the central bank’s usual playbook,” Mozo personal finance expert Rachel Wastell said.

However, for homeowners and borrowers, a super-sized rate cut could be a game-changer. The next quarterly inflation data release on April 30 will be influential in determining what happens at the May 20 RBA meeting.

Taking a look at the other Big Four banks forecasts:

• ANZ is predicting three more cuts, taking the cash rate to 3.35% by August
• CBA predicts one cut per quarter, taking the cash rate to 3.35% by year’s end
• Westpac is also forecasting quarterly cuts, to 3.35% by the end of 2025.

NAB drops fixed home loan rates by up to 0.55%

The big banking moves keep coming! NAB has trimmed up to 0.55 percentage points off its fixed rate home loans, with the changes taking effect just weeks out from the next cash rate decision.

The biggest cut applies to NAB’s one-year fixed Tailored Home Loan, which has dropped by 55 basis points. Meanwhile, its two-year fixed rate has been reduced by 45 basis points, bringing it down to 5.44% p.a. (6.57% p.a. comparison rate*) for borrowers with an LVR under 80%.

Following these cuts, NAB now boasts the lowest fixed rates of the Big Four banks – shaping up as a serious contender against some of the most competitive smaller lenders in the market.

NAB’s rates for one-, two- and three-year terms are now among the five lowest in our database.

Source: Mozo database as at 11 April, 2025. Rates are for an owner occupier with <80% LVR, making principal and interest repayments over 25 years on a $500,000 home loan.

ASX gets wiped as recession fears mount

It’s been a bruising week for Aussie investors.

The ASX 200 recorded some of its steepest single-day losses in years this week. The falls were a result of tumbling global markets, rattled by fresh fears of a global recession – sparked by the ongoing global trade war incited by the United States’ intense tariffs program.

Local resource and bank stocks bore the brunt of the selloff, with uncertainty creeping back into global risk markets. While there’s been a mild bounce since, volatility may stick around as rate expectations shift and international headlines heat up.

Don’t panic! There are ways to devise a personal plan to protect your money, such as saving more, cutting debts and diversifying your investments. Our senior writer Peter Terlato breaks it down further in this feature article about how to prepare for a recession.

Consumer confidence edges up, but many still hurting

Consumer confidence has lifted slightly following the March federal budget, according to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey – but the mood across the country remains cautious.

Mozo senior money writer Jasmine Gearie noted that the index rose modestly, yet 45% of Australians say their families are worse off financially than this time last year – a figure that’s remained stubbornly high for months. Only 19% felt better off, and sentiment around future finances remains lukewarm.

While confidence is 4.9 points higher year-on-year, ANZ economist Sophia Angala noted that recent gains have been minimal – up just 1.7 points compared to before the RBA’s last decision.

“The lack of material increase in recent weeks may reflect recent global trade uncertainty, which has likely offset some of the upward pressure on confidence from stronger domestic economic conditions,” Angala said.

She also pointed out that the survey didn’t fully capture the impact of the latest US tariff announcements, which could weigh further on sentiment in coming weeks.

If you’re among those feeling unsure about your finances, it might be worth reviewing your savings setup. With many accounts still offering 5% p.a. or more (if you meet bonus conditions), switching providers could deliver a better return.

Five savings mistakes that could be costing you big

Even with higher deposit rates over the past year, many Aussies are still missing out on potential returns – often due to simple mistakes. Mozo managing editor JP Pelosi lists five savings slip-ups that could be draining your balance, according to the latest Mozo research.

Check out the best savings accounts on Mozo for April to make your money work harder.

Calls to lower mortgage serviceability buffer

There are increasing calls to reduce the mortgage serviceability buffer from the current 3% to 2.5%, in an effort to improve access to home loans for first homebuyers and refinancers.

The buffer, set by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), requires lenders to assess whether borrowers could afford repayments if interest rates rose by 3 percentage points. While designed to safeguard borrowers and banks against rate shocks, some argue the current setting is too restrictive now that interest rates appear to have peaked.

Lowering the buffer could improve borrowing capacity. According to Mozo analysis, a household with a $3,500 monthly repayment budget could borrow around $20,200 more under a 2.5% buffer, compared to 3%.

If the buffer is adjusted in the future, it could open the door for more buyers and give existing borrowers greater flexibility to refinance to lower rates.

2025 MECA winners for online share trading revealed

The 2025 Mozo Experts Choice Awards for Online Share Trading have been announced, spotlighting platforms that offer exceptional value to Australian investors.​

moomoo has been named Australia's Best Online Share Trading platform for 2025, recognised for its low brokerage fees across ASX shares, ETFs, and US stocks.

In addition to this top honor, moomoo secured wins in multiple categories:​

• Casual ASX Investor
• Casual ETF Investor
• Casual US Investor
• Regular Investor

These accolades underscore moomoo's versatility and appeal to a broad range of investors.​

Meanwhile, CMC Invest received the Highly Commended Online Share Trading award for the fourth consecutive year, with victories in both the Regular Investor and Active Trader categories, affirming its strong position among seasoned investors.

Mozo's experts evaluated 73 share trading accounts from 31 platforms, analysing various pricing and feature scenarios to determine the winners. See here for a comprehensive list of award recipients and detailed methodology.

Term deposit rates are being slashed

After months of relative stability and high returns, term deposit rates are tumbling across the board – and it might be a hint at where the cash rate is headed.

Multiple providers in the Mozo database have made notable cuts this week. Here's some:

• NAB: dropped its 8-month rate by a full 1.00%, from 4.50% p.a. to 3.50% p.a.
• Westpac (St.George, Bank of Melb, BankSA): cut 11-month terms by 30bps to 4.20% p.a.
• ING: Cut 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 24 month rates by 10-15bps but increased 6 month terms by 10bps.
• Macquarie: trimmed several terms, including a 0.25% drop to its 1-year rate (now 4.00% p.a.)
• Bankwest: slashed 50bps off its 1-year TD, now also 4.00% p.a.
• Judo Bank: reduced rates by up to 35bps, with its top rate now 4.80% p.a.
• Rabobank: cut up to 40bps across terms – though its 6-month rate rose to 4.50% p.a.

So what does this wave of reductions mean?

According to Mozo personal finance expert Rachel Wastell, these moves could signal that banks are positioning themselves ahead of a likely RBA rate cut in May.

“When the banks start cutting term deposit rates at the same time, it’s usually not a coincidence. It’s more likely they’re preparing for a rate cut from the RBA next month by adjusting early to protect their margins,” says Wastell.

Her advice to savers? Act quickly and look beyond the big banks.

“All the Big Four banks now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate in May, so these cuts are in line with those expectations. If you’re a saver looking for a competitive rate, you should do so quickly and be sure to look at challenger lenders that are offering the leading rates,” Wastell added.

Top term deposit rates on Mozo right now