RBA drops yield curve control: What does that mean for borrowers?
The RBA has spent the past year insisting that the conditions for a rate hike won’t be in place until 2024 at the earliest. But that guidance went out the window at yesterday’s monthly policy meeting.
RBA governor Philip Lowe was forced to drop his usual messaging around a 2024 rate rise, along with a key tool the Bank has leaned on for more than a year to keep interest rates low.
All this means we could be looking at a very different interest rate environment as early as next year. So what does that mean for new and existing home loan customers? And is now a good time to lock in a fixed rate?
First of all, what is yield curve control?
Since March last year, the Bank has been purchasing billions of dollars worth of three-year government bonds as part of its “yield curve control” policy.
The price of bonds and the interest rate attached to them move in opposite directions. So by driving up their price, the RBA has been able to keep the yield (or return) on these bonds at a low 0.1%.
But a rapidly improving economy and stronger than expected inflation had made that target difficult to sustain, and last week the RBA found itself on the back foot against traders who have long rejected its messaging around the next rate hike.
When markets pushed up the yield well beyond 0.1%, the RBA made the extraordinary decision not to defend its target, and in yesterday’s policy meeting the central bank abandoned the target altogether.
So what does this mean for borrowers?
The yield curve control target served as an assurance that interest rates would remain at their current low levels for at least three years. Now that it’s been retired, we could very likely see the cash rate rise in the next year or two.
Mozo’s banking expert Peter Marshall said that expectation had already fed through to some fixed rates, particularly longer-term options which have been steadily climbing for months now.
“Banks have already been increasing fixed home loan rates for terms of two years or more, and the RBA's recent actions make it likely that the pace and size of rate increases will pick up over coming weeks and months,” he said.
Currently, the average 4-year fixed rate in our database sits at 2.68% p.a. (up from 2.37% p.a. in March 2021), while the average 5-year rate is slightly higher at 2.88% p.a. (up from 2.62% p.a. in March 2021).
Meanwhile, cuts to variable rates have accelerated in recent months. But with the RBA poised to move on rates in the coming years, banks are most likely trying to steer customers away from their still attractive fixed rate options.
“Variable rates should remain low for quite a while yet, but by the time they do start to increase fixed rates will probably be much higher than they are now,” Marshall said.
“Each borrower has to make their own assessment of whether they believe it's better to fix now or stick with a variable rate for a while longer — not an easy question to answer and perhaps taking the split loan approach is the best way to hedge rate risks.”
For more information about mortgage and lending trends, head over to our home loan statistics page. And if you’re in the market for a home loan, visit our home loan comparison page, or browse the selection below.
Home loan comparisons on Mozo - last updated 29 March 2024
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Offset Home Loan
Package, Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.15% p.a. variable6.40% p.a.Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
CompareCompareOffset Home Loan
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
- interest rate
- 6.15% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.40% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.15% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.40% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $350
- Ongoing fees
- $248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
- $400.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Macquarie Offset Home Loan
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Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Exceptional Value Home Lender - 2024
Express Home Loan
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, LVR <90%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.01% p.a. variable6.14% p.a.Get fast online approval from the award-winning Bendigo Bank Express Home Loan. Multiple offset accounts and redraw available. 100% offset on variable rate loans and partial offset on fixed rate. Flexible repayment options. New home loans only.
CompareCompareExpress Home Loan
Get fast online approval from the award-winning Bendigo Bank Express Home Loan. Multiple offset accounts and redraw available. 100% offset on variable rate loans and partial offset on fixed rate. Flexible repayment options. New home loans only.
- interest rate
- 6.01% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.14% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.01% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.14% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $134
- Ongoing fees
- $10.00 monthly
- Discharge Fee
- $350.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 90.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $5,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $3,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Bendigo Bank Express Home Loan
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Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2024
- Investor Fixed Home Loan - 2024
Fixed Rate Home Loan
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment5.99% p.a.
fixed 2 years6.24% p.a.Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.
CompareCompareFixed Rate Home Loan
Secure a low rate and enjoy the certainty of repayments, with the BCU Fixed Rate Home Loan. Save with no ongoing annual fees. Pay up to $25,000 extra during a fixed period (T&Cs apply). Lock in for up to 5 years.
- interest rate
- 6.29% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 6.30% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.29% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 6.30% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $0
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $395.00
- Extra repayments
- yes, up to $25,000 during fixed period - fee applies
- Redraw facility
- no
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $2,500,000
- type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the BCU Bank Fixed Rate Home Loan
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Featured Product
Ultra Low Rate <95% LVR
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment6.30% p.a. variable6.58% p.a.Only 5% deposit required to apply. Low upfront costs to pay. No LMI Required. Unlimited Redraw and additional repayments. No Application or ongoing fees. No guarantors or equity sharing required. New Purchase - Metro only.
CompareCompareUltra Low Rate <95% LVR
Only 5% deposit required to apply. Low upfront costs to pay. No LMI Required. Unlimited Redraw and additional repayments. No Application or ongoing fees. No guarantors or equity sharing required. New Purchase - Metro only.
- interest rate
- 6.30% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.58% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.30% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.58% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $790
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $795.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 95.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $350,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $2,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Sucasa Ultra Low Rate <95% LVR
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Featured Product
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2024
Unloan Variable
Owner Occupier, Refinance Only, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment5.99% p.a. variable5.90% p.a.For refinancers only. Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply in as little as 10 minutes.
CompareCompareUnloan Variable
For refinancers only. Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply in as little as 10 minutes.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.90% p.a.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.90% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $0
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $0.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Unloan Unloan Variable
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* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.
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